图书情报工作

图书情报工作 >

2014 , Vol. 58 >Issue 07: 95 - 99

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2014.07.016

情报研究

典型农业前瞻案例中情景分析法的应用分析

  • 邢颖 ,
  • 董瑜 ,
  • 袁建霞 ,
  • 张博 ,
  • 杨艳萍 ,
  • 张薇
展开
  • 中国科学院文献情报中心
邢颖，中国科学院文献情报中心助理研究员， E-mail:xingy@mail.las.ac.cn；董瑜，中国科学院文献情报中心副研究员，E-mail:dongy@mail.las.ac.cn；袁建霞，中国科学院文献情报中心副研究员；张博，中国科学院文献情报中心助理研究员；杨艳萍，中国科学院文献情报中心助理研究员；张薇，中国科学院文献情报中心副主任，研究员

收稿日期: 2014-02-25

  修回日期: 2014-03-20

  网络出版日期: 2014-04-05

基金资助

本文系中国科学院重点部署项目“保障粮食安全和现代农业发展的政策研究”(项目编号：KSZD-EW-Z-021)研究成果之一。

收起

Investigation of Scenario Analysis in Typical Agricultural Foresight Cases

  • Xing Ying ,
  • Dong Yu ,
  • Yuan Jianxia ,
  • Zhang Bo ,
  • Yang Yanping ,
  • Zhang Wei
Expand
  • National Science Library of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190

Received date: 2014-02-25

  Revised date: 2014-03-20

  Online published: 2014-04-05

Fold

摘要

通过分析近年来重要国际机构开展的若干农业和粮食系统的前瞻工作，系统研究情景分析法的应用情况，包括情景研究类型、情景分析流程及情景构建技术，并总结情景分析法在典型农业前瞻实践中的特点。分析表明，典型农业前瞻的情景分析按不同角度分类有多种类型，其流程随定性或定量分析类别不同有一定差异，情景的构建和分析综合采取多种方法与技术，尤其与模型应用紧密联系。

关键词： 情景分析; 情景构建; 农业前瞻; 粮食安全; 农业发展

本文引用格式

邢颖 , 董瑜 , 袁建霞 , 张博 , 杨艳萍 , 张薇 . 典型农业前瞻案例中情景分析法的应用分析[J]. 图书情报工作, 2014 , 58(07) : 95 -99 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2014.07.016

Abstract

Focusing on the method of scenario analysis, this study gives a systematic analysis on the application of scenario analysis in several typical agricultural foresight researches carried out by remarkable international institutions in recent years, with the emphasis on the elaboration of scenario typologies, scenario processing and approaches of scenario construction. It shows that for the typical agricultural foresight cases, scenario types were multiple and scenario processing was different between the quality scenario analysis and quantity scenario analysis. The scenario construction and development applied multiple technologies, with the highlight of drivers analysis and employment of models.

Key words： scenario analysis; scenario construction; agricultural foresight; food security; agricultural development

参考文献

[1] Habegger B. Strategic foresight in public policy: Reviewing the experiences of the UK, Singapore, and the Netherlands[J]. Futures, 2010, 42(1):49-58.

[2] 纪凯龄. 前瞻方法论初探[J]. 科技发展政策报导, 2008(5):87-91.

[3] 岳珍, 赖茂生. 国外“情景分析”方法的进展[J]. 情报杂志, 2006, 25(7):59-60, 64.

[4] International Food Policy Research Institute. Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options [EB/OL]. [2013-01-14]. http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/rr172.pdf.

[5] French National Institute for Agricultural Research, French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development. Agrimonde scenarios and challenges for feeding the world in 2050 [EB/OL]. [2013-01-14]. http://www.agrimonde.org/agrimonde/Agrimonde-Phase-1/Goals.

[6] Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. Five scenarios for 2050——Conditions for agriculture and land use [EB/OL]. [2013-01-14]. http://www.slu.se/en/collaborative-centres-and-projects/future-agriculture/activities/scenarios/europe/.

[7] European Commission – Standing Committee on Agricultural Research. Sustainable food consumption and production in a resource-constrained world [EB/OL]. [2013-01-14]. http://ec.europa.eu/research/agriculture/scar/index_en.cfm?p=3_foresight.

[8] The Government Office for Science, UK. The future of food and farming: Challenges and choices for global sustainability [EB/OL]. [2013-01-14]. http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/projects/published-projects/global-food-and-farming-futures.

[9] International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. How can climate change and the development of bioenergy alter the long-term outlook for food and agriculture [EB/OL]. [2013-01-14]. http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/i2280e/i2280e00.htm, http://www.fao.org/economic/esa/esa-activities/perspectives/en/.

[10] 娄伟.情景分析理论与方法[M]. 北京:社会科学文献出版社, 2012:103, 104.

Options
文章导航

/

〈 〉