图书情报工作 ›› 2017, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (7): 127-136.DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2017.07.018

• 综述述评 • 上一篇    下一篇

国内外颠覆性技术发现方法研究综述

刘秋艳1,2, 吴新年1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院兰州文献情报中心 兰州 730000;
    2. 中国科学院大学 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-30 修回日期:2017-03-20 出版日期:2017-04-05 发布日期:2017-04-05
  • 作者简介:刘秋艳(ORCID:0000-0001-6292-4522),硕士研究生;吴新年(ORCID:0000-0002-7865-9548),研究员,博士,硕士生导师,通讯作者,E-mail:wuxn@lzb.ac.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    本文系中国科学院文献情报"十三五"规划重点培育方向项目"基于多数据源的颠覆性技术识别路径研究"研究成果之一。

Review on Disruptive Technology Discovery Methods

Liu Qiuyan1,2, Wu Xinnian1   

  1. 1. Lanzhou Library of Chinese Academy of Science, Lanzhou 730000;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049
  • Received:2016-12-30 Revised:2017-03-20 Online:2017-04-05 Published:2017-04-05

摘要: [目的/意义] 对国内外颠覆性技术发现方法进行系统梳理,分析存在问题,提出未来研究方向,为今后颠覆性技术识别方法的研究奠定基础。[方法/过程] 在辨析颠覆性技术与相关技术概念的基础上,分析总结目前各种颠覆性技术发现方法及优缺点,并整理归纳各方法所依据的主要评判思想和指标。[结果/结论] 现有的颠覆性技术发现方法主要是基于技术管理与应用角度的主观分析,基于专利或科学论文统计分析的客观性探测研究也开始少量出现,但均处于待发展阶段,仍然存在许多不足之处;颠覆性技术发现方法未来研究方向应该是利用情报学理论方法,基于专利与论文两者相结合的数据源,从客观性角度建立颠覆性技术识别的合理、适用的指标体系,提升技术发现的准确性和有效性。

关键词: 颠覆性技术, 技术发现, 发现方法, 评判指标, 综述

Abstract: [Purpose/significance] This paper systematically combs the disruptive technology discovery methods, to analyze the existing problems and put forward the future research directions. [Method/process] Through analyzing the related concepts of disruptive technology, the paper summarizes the content, advantages and disadvantages of various discovery methods, and further sorts out the main evaluation indexes of each method. [Result/conclusion] The existing methods are mainly based on the subjective analysis of technology management and application. Besides, objective detection based on patents or academic literature begins to appear in a small amount. These methods are all in the development stage with many deficiencies. Future research can be carried out in the following direction:using the theory and method of information science, based on the combined sources of patents and papers,to set up a reasonable and applicable index system of disruptive technology identification from the objective angle.

Key words: disruptive technology, technology discovery, discovery methods, evaluation index, review

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