RESEARCH PAPERS
Zhang Jingyi, Geng Ruibin, Zhao Yiming
[Purpose/Significance] Against the backdrop of the intensifying U.S. semiconductor technology restrictions on China, it is strategically imperative to delve deeper into the intricate operational chains and dynamic evolutionary patterns embedded in the impact of U.S. technology export controls, assisting decision-makers to gain insight to the evolution paths of policy impacts, gauge the effectiveness of the countermeasures, and update their policy planning. [Method/Process] This study proposed a method for identifying the evolution paths of policy impact based on event evolutionary graph. From the perspective of the dynamically evolving nature of the events, it introduced the Markov chain model to identify critical evolution paths of events in the graph. It analyzed the impact of U.S. technology restrictions on major associated entities across the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments of China’s semiconductor industry and their evolution trends, thereby assessed the complex mechanisms influencing various stakeholders. [Result/Conclusion] The findings reveal that there are significant differences in the evolution characteristics of events among entities at different sectors of the industry chain. Government-led pre-interventions pose a crucial impact on the positive orientation of event evolution, while market-responsive events have an important feedback role in the paths. Consequently, it is imperative to prioritize policy implementation to develop a multi-level, full-chain policy system encompassing the entire industry, foster the collaborative efforts of government, industry, academia, and research to advance breakthroughs in key core technologies within the semiconductor field, and promote cooperative synergy among enterprises across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors to establish a secure, autonomous, and collaboratively innovative semiconductor industry ecosystem.