图书情报工作 ›› 2019, Vol. 63 ›› Issue (18): 78-86.DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2019.18.010

• 情报研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

突发事件应急管理中情报介入与融合模型研究

刘建准1, 唐霈雯1, 石密1, 刘春雷2, 阎耀军1   

  1. 1. 天津工业大学经济与管理学院 天津 300387;
    2. 天津大学计算机科学与技术学院 天津 300350
  • 收稿日期:2019-01-02 修回日期:2019-04-18 出版日期:2019-09-20 发布日期:2019-09-20
  • 作者简介:刘建准(ORCID:0000-0002-9939-1843),博士,副教授,E-mail:ljzxsnk@126.com;唐霈雯(ORCID:0000-0002-6693-6894),本科生;石密(ORCID:0000-0003-1983-0533),博士,讲师;刘春雷(ORCID:0000-0002-0822-7344),博士后;阎耀军(ORCID:0000-0001-8518-8054),教授。
  • 基金资助:
    本文系国家社会科学基金项目"社会突发事件应急管理中的情报介入与融合研究"(项目编号:18BTQ052)研究成果之一。

Research on Intelligence Intervention and Fusion Model in Emergency Management

Liu Jianzhun1, Tang Peiwen1, Shi Mi1, Liu Chunlei2, Yan Yaojun1   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Tianjin Polytechnic University, Tianjin 300387;
    2. School of Computer Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350
  • Received:2019-01-02 Revised:2019-04-18 Online:2019-09-20 Published:2019-09-20

摘要: [目的/意义]本研究旨在探索情报在突发事件应急管理领域的高效介入模型,从而达到保障人员安全、减少财产损失、降低社会负面影响的目的。[方法/过程]本研究采用生命周期理论,从时间维度上将应急情报响应体系划分为事前预警、事中控制和事后止损三个阶段,依据不同的发展阶段采用不同的情报介入策略,形成从社会膜感知预警,到降低突发事件的信息熵,最终提高社会韧性的框架结构。本文强调情报流和技术流的协同合作效应,突破高层情报核心人员与科研技术人员之间的学术领域壁垒,构建"输入及时准确的最新情报,输出有效有针对性的技术方案"的体系。利用社会膜理论过滤日常安全信息,传递可疑突发信息;利用熵减原则降低事发现场情报的无序性和混乱程度;利用六边形弹性均衡理论模型提高社会韧性,加强面对突发事件的抗逆性和恢复力。[结果/结论]采用情报介入突发事件应急管理领域,大大加快了突发事件的处理速度,提高了效率与准确性。今后会利用大数据、计算机仿真模拟等实证手段验证模型的正确性与普适性,并进一步细化研究适合不同类型、不同时空的突发事件应急管理中情报介入模型。

关键词: 突发事件应急管理, 情报介入与融合, 生命周期理论, 信息熵, 社会膜

Abstract: [Purpose/significance] The purpose of this study is to explore an efficient intelligence intervention model in the field of emergency management, so as to ensure personnel safety, reduce property losses and social negative impacts.[Method/process] This study have used the life cycle theory, the emergency intelligence response system was divided into three stages from the time dimension:pre-warning, in-process control and post-stop loss. And, the different intelligence intervention strategies were adopted according to different development stages to form a framework structure from the perception of social membranes to the reduction of intelligence entropy of emergency incidents and ultimately improving the social resilience. Then, the study emphasized the synergistic effect of intelligence flow and technology flow, break through the academic barriers between high-level intelligence core personnel and scientific research personnel and build a system of "input timely and accurate latest information and output effective and targeted technical solutions". Utilizing social membrane theory to filter daily safety information and transmit suspicious burst information; utilizing the principle of entropy reduction to reduce the disorder and chaos of the intelligence of the present scene; utilize the hexagonal elastic equilibrium theory model to improve social resilience and strengthen the resistance and resilience in the face of emergency incidents.[Result/conclusion] The combination of intelligence intervention and emergency management has greatly accelerated the processing speed of emergencies and improved the efficiency and accuracy. In the future, the correctness and universality of the model will be verified by the means of empirical methods such as big data and computer simulation, and the intelligence intervention model suitable for emergency management of different types and different time and space will be further refined.

Key words: emergency management, intelligence intervention and fusion, life cycle theory, information entropy, social membrane

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