图书情报工作 ›› 2020, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (24): 106-114.DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2020.24.012

• 纪念中国科学院文献情报中心成立70周年专辑 • 上一篇    下一篇

灰色预测法在情报研究中的应用研究综述

张晶晶1,2, 李泽霞1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院文献情报中心 北京 100190;
    2. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院图书情报与档案管理系 北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2020-11-05 修回日期:2020-11-26 出版日期:2020-12-20 发布日期:2020-12-20
  • 通讯作者: 李泽霞(ORCID:0000-0001-7749-4094),研究员,博士,硕士生导师,通讯作者,E-mail:lizexia@mail.las.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:张晶晶(ORCID:0000-0003-2911-2797),硕士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    本文系中国科学院文献情报中心成立70周年项目(项目编号:院1111)和2020年中国科学院文献情报能力建设专项"科技领域战略情报研究咨询体系建设"(项目编号:E0290001)研究成果之一,受"中国科学院文献情报中心成立七十周年主题论坛与纪念文集出版"项目资助出版。

Review on the Application of Grey Prediction Method in Information Research

Zhang Jingjing1,2, Li Zexia1,2   

  1. 1. National Science Library, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    2. Department of Library, Information and Archives Management, School of Economic and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
  • Received:2020-11-05 Revised:2020-11-26 Online:2020-12-20 Published:2020-12-20

摘要: [目的/意义] 灰色预测法可有效处理情报研究中广泛存在的小样本数据,通过对灰色预测法在情报研究中的应用情况进行梳理,总结其在应用过程中存在的不足,为灰色预测法在情报研究中的进一步应用提供参考。[方法/过程] 通过综述情报研究中涉及灰色预测法的相关文献,从数据选取、模型构建和解决的问题等方面对情报研究中灰色预测法的应用进行概述,总结当前情报研究中灰色预测法的应用所存在的问题,并提出改进建议。[结果/结论] 在方法应用上,已有研究主要采用数列灰预测,且模型集中在单变量灰色预测模型,根据预测对象不同,灰色预测法已经在包括期刊分析、图书馆运行管理、热点主题分析及科研机构评价方面得到了很好的应用,未来可根据预测对象特点及研究目标尝试不同的灰色预测方法,扩宽灰色预测法在其他方面的情报研究问题中的应用。

关键词: 灰色预测法, 情报研究, 数据选取, 模型构建, 情报研究问题

Abstract: [Purpose/significance] Grey prediction method can effectively deal with small sample data widely existing in information research. This paper analyzed the application of grey prediction in information research and summarized the shortcomings in the application process, laying the foundation for further application of grey prediction method in information research.[Method/process] By reviewing the literatures related to grey prediction method in information research, this paper gave an overview of data selection, model construction and solved problems of grey predicting method in information research, summarized the problems existing in the application of grey prediction method in current information research, and put forward suggestions for improvement.[Result/conclusion] In the application of the method, the research mainly adopts the sequence grey prediction, and the model focuses on the univariate grey prediction model. According to different prediction objects, grey prediction method has been well applied in journal analysis, library operation management, hot topic analysis and evaluation of scientific research institutions. In the future, different grey prediction methods can be tried according to the characteristics of the prediction object and the research objectives, and the application of grey prediction method can be expanded to other information research issues.

Key words: grey prediction method, information research, data selection, model construction, information research issue

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