关键词: 科技前沿方向, 科技发展趋势, 情报监测, 情报分析, 综合研判

Abstract: [Purpose/Significance] S&T frontier direction is forward-looking, pioneering, exploratory and even destructive, and it is the S&T competition focus of major countries in the world. The methods of intelligence monitoring, analysis and comprehensive study and judgment for the S&T frontier direction are discussed, aiming to further optimize intelligence research system and monitor and analyze the related intelligence information timely, and study and judge the world's S&T frontier direction and its development trend.[Method/Process] Based on the long-term work practice of intelligence monitoring, analysis and judgment of the development trend and frontier direction of world S&T, through in-depth thinking, it was concluded that the comprehensive and accurate grasp of S&T frontier direction required systematic intelligence monitoring, scientific intelligence analysis and comprehensive study and judgment, and proposed the corresponding methodological framework for intelligence monitoring, intelligence analysis and comprehensive study and judgment in the S&T frontier direction.[Result/Conclusion] Regarding intelligence monitoring, complying with the process of S&T development, it is proposed to select multiple data sources for intelligence monitoring that can reflect the S&T development of different periods including the past, present and future according to the time development; For intelligence analysis, it is proposed to adopt appropriate analysis methods for different data sources with the goal of revealing the laws of S&T development and perceiving the early warning signals of S&T evolution; For comprehensive study and judgment, it is proposed to integrate the results of intelligence monitoring and analysis, and to study and judge whether a research direction is a cutting-edge direction according to six standards based on the analyzing of S&T development trend, including whether it promotes the birth of new disciplines, whether a large number of breakthrough achievements has emerged, whether it changes human thinking and understanding, and whether it improves human ability to transform nature, and whether to change the social production mode or human lifestyle.

Key words: S&T frontier direction, S&T development trend, intelligence monitoring, intelligence analysis, comprehensive study and judgment