综述述评

网络舆情建模方法研究述评

  • 宋姜 ,
  • 吴鹏 ,
  • 甘利人
展开
  • 南京理工大学经济管理学院
宋姜,南京理工大学经济管理学院博士研究生,E-mail:897496551@qq.com;吴鹏,南京理工大学经济管理学院副教授,博士,硕士生导师;甘利人,南京理工大学经济管理学院教授,博士生导师。

收稿日期: 2014-07-08

  修回日期: 2014-08-22

  网络出版日期: 2014-10-05

基金资助

本文系2014年江苏省研究生科研创新工程项目“基于PMF框架的网络舆情网民群体情感计算建模及仿真”(项目编号:KYLX_0405)和国家自然科学基金项目“突发事件网络舆情演变过程中的人群仿真研究”(项目编号:71273132)研究成果之一。

A Review on Internet Public Opinion Modeling Methods

  • Song Jiang ,
  • Wu Peng ,
  • Gan Liren
Expand
  • School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094

Received date: 2014-07-08

  Revised date: 2014-08-22

  Online published: 2014-10-05

摘要

以国外SCI、EI、ISTP数据库和国内CNKI数据库收录的核心期刊中关于网络舆情建模主题的论文为分析对象,从论文数量和研究方法上对网络舆情建模进行总体概括,根据建模对象的不同将其分为针对网络舆情信息本身的建模方法和针对网民群体的建模方法两大类,并对每大类下面的建模方法进行讨论,指出各类模型方法中存在的一些不足,在此基础上,提出一些改进意见并探讨未来的重点研究方向。

本文引用格式

宋姜 , 吴鹏 , 甘利人 . 网络舆情建模方法研究述评[J]. 图书情报工作, 2014 , 58(19) : 136 -143 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2014.19.021

Abstract

This paper makes a statistic analysis about internet public opinion modeling issues which are published in the core journals indexed by SCI, EI, ISTP and CNKI. An overview of the current study of internet public opinion has been given in article quantity and method. Based on modeling objects, the methods are divided into two categories: focusing on opinion information and netizens. Then the paper describes the different modeling methods in details, and indicates some short comings about the methods. Finally it gives some suggestions and predicts future research directions based on the current research.

参考文献

[1] 曾润喜. 网络舆情信息资源共享研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2009, 28(8):187-191.

[2] Westwood S J. How to measure public opinion in the networked age: Working in a Googleocracy or a Googlearchy?[C]//What Kind of Information Society? Governance, Virtuality, Surveillance, Sustainability, Resilience. Berlin:Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010: 150-160.

[3] Bishop B H. Focusing events and public opinion: Evidence from the Deepwater Horizon disaster[J]. Political Behavior, 2014,36(1):1-22.

[4] Baum M A, Groeling T. Shot by the messenger: Partisan cues and public opinion regarding national security and war[J]. Political Behavior, 2009, 31(2): 157-186.

[5] 许鑫, 章成志, 李雯静, 等. 国内网络舆情研究的回顾与展望[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2009,32(3):115-120.

[6] 苏楠, 张璇, 杨红岗, 等. 基于知识图谱的国内网络舆情研究可视化分析[J]. 情报杂志, 2012,31(10):42-47.

[7] Wang Xuerui, McCallum A. Topics over time: A non-Markov continuous-time model of topical trends[C]// Proceedings of the 12th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. New York:ACM, 2006: 424-433.

[8] 高辉, 王沙沙, 傅彦. Web 舆情的长期趋势预测方法[J]. 电子科技大学学报, 2011, 40(3): 440-445.

[9] Zhang Yiwen, Qi Jiayin, Fang Binxing, et al. The indicator system based on BP neural network model for net-mediated public opinion on unexpected emergency[J]. China Communications, 2011, 8(2): 42-51.

[10] 丁菊玲, 勒中坚, 薛圈圈. 定量网络舆情危机预警模型构建[J]. 图书情报工作, 2011,55(20): 59-63.

[11] 王根生, 勒中坚, 陆旭, 等.迁移元胞自动机网络舆情演化模型(M2CA)[J].情报学报,2011,30(6):570-576.

[12] 陈涛, 林杰. 基于模糊元胞自动机的网络舆情演化模型[J]. 情报学报, 2013,32(9):920-928.

[13] Sudbury A. The proportion of the population never hearing a rumour[J]. Journal of Applied Probability, 1985,22(2):443-446.

[14] Zhou Jie, Liu Zonghua, Li Baowen. Influence of network structure on rumor propagation[J]. Physics Letters A, 2007, 368(6): 458-463.

[15] Liu Changyu, Hu Xiaofeng, Si Guangya, et al. Public opinion propagation model based on small world networks[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2006,18(12): 070.

[16] Pan Zaofeng, Wang Xiaofan, Li Xiang. Simulation investigation on rumor spreading on scale-free network with tunable clustering[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2006,18(8): 2346-2348.

[17] 宗利永, 顾宝炎, 孙绍荣. 基于注意力资源分配机制的网络危机舆情演变研究[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2010,33(10):29-33.

[18] Tan Zhangwen, Li Xiaochen, Mao Weiji. Agent-based modeling of netizen groups in Chinese Internet events[C]//Intelligence and Security Informatics. Berlin:Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2011: 43-53.

[19] Blei D M, Ng A Y, Jordan M I. Latent Dirichlet allocation[J]. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2003, 3: 993-1022.

[20] 胡艳丽, 白亮, 张维明. 网络舆情中一种基于OLDA的在线话题演化方法[J]. 国防科技大学学报, 2012,34 (1):150-154.

[21] 周耀明, 李弼程. 一种自适应网络舆情演化建模方法[J]. 数据采集与处理, 2013, 28(1): 69-76.

[22] Zeidenberg M. Neural networks in artificial intelligence[M]. London:Ellis Horwood, 1990.

[23] 王铁套, 王国营, 陈越. 一种基于Elman神经网络的网络舆情威胁估计方法[J]. 信息工程大学学报, 2012, 13(4): 482-488.

[24] Lapin M, Hein M, Schiele B. Learning using privileged information: SVM+ and weighted SVM[J]. Neural Networks, 2014,53:95–108.

[25] 黄敏, 胡学钢. 基于支持向量机的网络舆情混沌预测[J].计算机工程与应用,2013,49(24):130-134.

[26] 曾振东. 基于灰色支持向量机的网络舆情预测模型[J]. 计算机应用与软件,2014,31(2):300-302,311.

[27] 丁菊玲, 勒中坚, 王根生, 等. 一种面向网络舆情危机预警的观点柔性挖掘模型[J]. 情报杂志, 2009,28(10):152-154,67.

[28] Zeng Jianping, Zhang Shiyong, Wu Chengrong, et al. Predictive model for internet public opinion[C]//Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery. Haikou: IEEE Press, 2007: 7-11.

[29] 杜锦, 陈光宣. 网络舆情演进规律中的PETRI建模分析[J]. 计算机系统应用, 2013,22(1):8-12.

[30] Wolfram S. Cellular automata and complexity:Collected papers[M]. Reading: Addison-Wesley, 1994.

[31] Alves S G, Oliveira Neto N M, Martins M L. Electoral surveys' influence on the voting processes: A cellular automata model[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2002, 316(1): 601-614.

[32] 戴建华, 杭家蓓. 基于模糊规则的元胞自动机网络舆论传播模型研究[J]. 情报杂志,2012,31(7):16-20.

[33] Shulgin B, Stone L, Agur Z. Pulse vaccination strategy in the SIR epidemic model[J]. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 1998, 60(6): 1123-1148.

[34] Nekovee M, Moreno Y, Bianconi G, et al. Theory of rumour spreading in complex social networks[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2007, 374(1): 457-470.

[35] 钱颖, 张楠, 赵来军,等. 微博舆情传播规律研究[J]. 情报学报, 2012,31(12):1299-1304.

[36] Moreno Y, Nekovee M, Pacheco A F. Dynamics of rumor spreading in complex networks[J]. Physical Review E, 2004, 69(6): 066130.

[37] 陈波, 于泠, 刘君亭, 等. 泛在媒体环境下的网络舆情传播控制模型[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2011, 31(11):2140-2150.

[38] 陈福集,陈婷. 基于SEIRS 传播模型的网络舆情衍生效应研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2014,33(2):108-113,160.

[39] 朱恒民,苏新宁, 张相斌. 基于连接网络图的互联网舆情话题跟踪方法[J]. 情报学报,2011,30(12): 1235-1241.

[40] Zanette D H. Dynamics of rumor propagation on small-world networks[J]. Physical Review E, 2002, 65(4): 041908.

[41] Xiong Xi, Gou Zhijian, Zhang Shibin, et al. Dynamic evolution model based on social network services[J]. International Journal of Modern Physics C, 2013, 24(11):56-64.

[42] 朱恒民, 苏新宁, 张相斌,等. 互联网舆情演化的动态网络模型研究[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2010,33(10):75-78.

[43] 刘小波. 基于人际关系网络的舆情演化建模研究[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2011, 34(9): 100-103.

[44] 唐晓波, 宋承伟. 基于复杂网络的微博舆情分析[J]. 情报学报, 2012,31(11):1153-1162.

[45] Jager W, Amblard F. Uniformity, bipolarization and pluriformity captured as generic stylized behavior with an agent-based simulation model of attitude change[J]. Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, 2005,10(4):295-303.

[46] Sznajd-Weron K, Sznajd J. Opinion evolution in closed community[J]. International Journal of Modern Physics C, 2000,11(6): 1157-1165.

[47] Ochrombel R. Simulation of Sznajd sociophysics model with convincing single opinions[J]. International Journal of Modern Physics C, 2001,12(7): 1091-1099.

[48] Toscani G. Kinetic models of opinion formation[J]. Communications in Mathematical Sciences, 2006, 4(3): 481-496.

[49] Ramirez-Cano D, Pitt J. Follow the leader: Profiling agents in an opinion formation model of dynamic confidence and individual mind-sets[C]//IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Intelligent Agent Technology. Hong Kong:IEEE, 2006: 660-667.

[50] 乐国安, 薛婷, 陈浩. 网络集群行为的定义和分类框架初探[J]. 中国人民公安大学学报(社会科学版), 2010(6): 99-104.

[51] 宗利永, 顾宝炎. 危机沟通环境中网络舆情演变的Multi-Agent建模研究[J]. 情报科学, 2010,28(9): 1414-1419,1425.

[52] Hegselmann R, Krause U. Opinion dynamics and bounded confidence models, analysis, and simulation[J]. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2002, 5(3):1-33.

[53] Galam S. Minority opinion spreading in random geometry[J]. The European Physical Journal B -Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 2002, 25(4): 403-406.

[54] 张一文, 齐佳音, 马君, 等. 网络舆情与非常规突发事件作用机制——基于系统动力学建模分析[J]. 情报杂志, 2010,29(9):1-6.

[55] 陈桂茸, 蔡皖东, 徐会杰, 等. 网络舆论演化的高影响力优先有限信任模型[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2013,47(1):155-160.

文章导航

/