图书情报工作

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2015 , Vol. 59 >Issue 5: 100 - 105

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2015.05.016

情报研究

科研产出高峰期研究的现状与问题

  • 樊向伟 ,
  • 肖仙桃
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  • 1. 中国科学院大学管理学院 北京 100049;
    2. 中国科学院兰州文献情报中心 兰州 730000
樊向伟(OCRD:0000-0002-7559-3221),硕士研究生,E-mail:fanxiangwei@mail.las.ac.cn;肖仙桃,研究馆员,硕士研究生导师.

收稿日期: 2015-01-14

  修回日期: 2015-02-15

  网络出版日期: 2015-03-05

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The Research Status and Problems of Peak Age Period of Scientific Output

  • Fan Xiangwei ,
  • Xiao Xiantao
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  • 1. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;
    2. Lanzhou Library of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000

Received date: 2015-01-14

  Revised date: 2015-02-15

  Online published: 2015-03-05

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摘要

[目的/意义]对科研产出高峰期研究现状进行剖析,分析存在的问题,提出可改进方向及研究重点.[方法/过程]总结现有科研创造峰值和科研创造峰值年龄概念,进一步提出科研产出高峰期的概念;对几种研究模型,如威布尔分布模型、对数正态分布模型、两步认知模型等进行剖析,总结优缺点.[结果/结论]当前研究模型在数据统计及处理误差和科研产出衡量指标的选取方面存在严重不足.未来研究思路和方向是科研产出衡量指标构建、数据处理误差克服、产出影响因素作用机理研究.

关键词： 科研产出高峰期; 科研创造峰值; 研究模型; 威布尔分布; 对数正态分布; 逻辑多项式回归; 两步认知模型

本文引用格式

樊向伟 , 肖仙桃 . 科研产出高峰期研究的现状与问题[J]. 图书情报工作, 2015 , 59(5) : 100 -105 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2015.05.016

Abstract

[Purpose/significance] By analyzing the peak age of scientific research output, the paper analyzes the existing problems, and puts forward the improvement direction and research points.[Method/process] After summarizing the existing concept of research creation peak and scientific creation peak age and analyzing Weibull Distribution,LogarithmicNormal Distribution Model, Two-Step Cognitive Model,Econometric Models, the paper studies the advantages and disadvantages.[Result/conclusion] The existing research models have drawbacks on data statistics and processing error and the selection of research output measures. The future research direction and points includes constructing the index for scientific research output, overcoming the data statistics and processing error, and discussing the influence mechanism of scientific research output.

Key words： peak age of scientific research output; age of peak creative performance; research model; Weibull Distribution; Logarithmic Normal Distribution; Logistic Fractional Polynomial Regressions; Two-Step Cognitive Model

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