收稿日期: 2015-05-06
修回日期: 2015-05-21
网络出版日期: 2015-06-05
基金资助
本文系黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目“面向未来情境的我国图书馆情境战略研究”(项目编号:14B051)和黑龙江省教育厅人文社会科学项目“面向不确定性未来的图书馆情景规划研究”(项目编号:12542204)研究成果之一。
Establishment and Realization of University Libraries' Scenario Planning: Taking Hong Kong Polytechnic University's Library as an Example
Received date: 2015-05-06
Revised date: 2015-05-21
Online published: 2015-06-05
[目的/意义] 针对当前我国图书馆面临的不确定性复杂环境, 引入情景规划理论, 建立嵌入情景的大学图书馆战略规划实施模型, 旨在丰富图书馆战略规划理论, 并在实践层面上为我国大学图书馆及其他类型图书馆战略规划提供借鉴。[方法/过程] 运用系统研究方法, 融合战略规划与情景规划理论, 突出情景规划的系统学习、应急性与反馈性等特性, 构建大学图书馆情景规划模型, 以香港理工大学图书馆为例阐释说明其实现过程与实施效果。[结果/结论] 结果显示, 作为面向复杂多变的不确定性环境的战略规划方法, 大学图书馆情景规划有助于形成面向未来导向与公共导向的未来情景, 培养与形成图书馆共享心智模式, 在成本预算、建筑修复、员工技能等方面, 为图书馆制定面向未来的战略规划研究与实践提供有益参考。
马小琪 . 大学图书馆情景规划模型构建与实现——以香港理工大学图书馆为例[J]. 图书情报工作, 2015 , 59(11) : 48 -54 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2015.11.007
[Purpose/significance] With an aim to enrich library strategy planning theory and provide a guidance to Chinese university libraries and other types of libraries in practice, this paper introduces scenario planning as a theoretical base to establish a new strategy planning model for university libraries in the complex and uncertainty environment. [Method/process] Using systematic research method, combining strategy planning theory with scenario planning theory, highlighting characteristics of systematic thinking, contingent and feedback of scenario planning, the paper establishes a model of university library scenario planning. Then it takes scenario planning of the library of Hong Kong Polytechnic University as an example to illustrate the implementation and verify the operating results.[Result/conclusion] The results show that the scenario planning used in university libraries may facilitate to form the multiply possible scenario confronted in the future, to cultivate and formulate university library mindset throughout the library, thus provide a useful reference for research and practice of scenario planning in the field of cost budget, construction rebuilding, faculty skill.
[1] 盛小平. 大学图书馆战略规划的几个基本问题[J]. 大学图书馆学报, 2009(2):14-18.
[2] 吴建中. 战略思考:图书馆管理的10个热门话题[M]. 上海:上海科学技术文献出版社, 2005: 21-24.
[3] Bell S J. Using the scenario approach for achieving sustainable development in academic libraries[OL].[2015-04-08]. http://www.ala.org/ala/acrl/acrlevents/bell99.pdf.
[4] Raynor M E. 战略的悖论:企业求成得败的原因及应对之道[M]. 耿帅, 译.北京:机械工业出版社, 2009:1-5.
[5] Chermack T J.Disciplined imagination: Building scenarios and building theories futures[J]. 2007,39:1-15.
[6] 娄伟. 情景分析理论与方法[M]. 北京:社会科学文献出版社, 2012:28-39,129-160.
[7] Van de Heijden.情景:战略对话的艺术[M]. 邱昭良,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2007:9-24,129-160.
[8] Schoemaker P J H, Day G S, Snyder S A. Integrating organizational networks, weak signals, strategic radars and scenario planning[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2013,80(4):815-824.
[9] Meissner K P, Wulf T. Cognitive benefits of scenario planning: Its impact on biases and decision quality[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2013,80(4):801-814.
[10] Bowman G, MacKay R B, Masrani S, et al. Storytelling and the scenario process: understanding success and failure[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2013,80(4):735-748.
[11] McWhorter R R, Lynham S A. An initial conceptualization of virtual scenario planning[J]. Advances in Developing Human Resources, 2014, 16(3):335-355.
[12] Walton G. Theory, research and practice in library management 6——Managing uncertainty through scenario planning [J]. Library Management, 2009,30(4/5):334-341.
[13] Ludwig L, Giesecke K, Walton L. Scenario planning: A tool for academic health sciences libraries[J]. Health Information & Libraries Journal, 2010,27(3):28-36.
[14] Giesecke J. Scenario planning and collection development [OL]. [2015-05-03]. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/libraryscience.
[15] Watstein S B. Scenario planning for the future of reference: Five white papers posit the future and raise the bar for us all [J]. Reference Services Review, 2003(1):36-38.
[16] 香港高等教育统计局[OL] . [2015-05-02].http://www.hesa.ac.uk.
[17] 美国图书馆联盟之大学与研究图书馆协会[OL]. [2015-05-03]. http://www.ala.org/acrl/sites/ala.org.acrl/files/content/issues/value/futures2025.
[18] The bookends scenarios——A project of the Library Council of New South Wales in association with the Neville Freedman Agency[R/OL].[2015-05-03].http://sl.csw.gov.au/services/public_libraries/publications/docs/bookends scenarios.
[19] Staley D J, Seaman S, Theodore-Shusta E. Futuring, strategic planning and shared awareness: An Ohio University libraries case study[J]. The Journal of Academic Librarianship, 2012,38(1):1-5.
[20] Libraries of the future[OL] .[2015-05-03]. http://www.calstate.edu/library/documents/LOFT_Recommendations_Report_v1_0.pdf.
[21] 李庆红, 唐澈, 周玮璐. 图书馆战略管理研究的佳作——评柯平教授的《图书馆战略规划研究》[J]. 图书情报工作,2014,58(6):143-146.
[22] 廉同辉, 潘虹.《图书馆战略规划研究》评析[J]. 图书馆建设,2015(3):93-96.
[23] 李情. 高校图书馆战略管理模型的构建[J]. 科技情报开发与经济,2015(10): 4-7.
[24] 肖鹏. 情景规划:图书馆未来的再设计——读《反思高校图书馆与公共图书馆的未来》[J]. 图书馆论坛,2014(9):109-113.
[25] 张真. 国外高校图书馆战略管理中使用的方法研究[J]. 图书馆学研究,2013(2):42-46.
[26] 别立谦, 刘晋伟. 美国高校图书馆战略规划的方向、实施及启示[J]. 大学图书馆学报,2014(5):19-24.
[27] 王铮, 王燕鹏, 邹美辰, 等. 在变化的知识环境中寻求新平衡——2014年英美等国图书馆发展策略评述[J].图书情报工作, 2015,59(9):5-15.
[28] 周静珍,赵乃瑄. 基于情景分析的高校低碳图书馆建设构想[J]. 图书情报研究, 2011(2):21-25.
[29] O'Connor S, Sidorko P. Imagine your library's future:Scenario planning for libraries and information organizations[M]. Chambridge:Chandos Publishing, 2010:157-162.
[30] 张焕敏,陈良强. 国外知名高校图书馆使命、愿景、价值观研究[J]. 图书馆建设, 2010(9):106-109.
[31] McNamara C. Basic overview of various strategic planning models[OL]. [2015-03-02].http://www.managementhelp.org/strategicplanning/models.htm.
[32] Tsai W T, Fan C, Cao Z, et al. A scenario-based service-oriented rapid multi-agent distributed modeling and simulation framework for SoS/SOA and its applications[OL]. [2015-04-02].http://wenku.baidu.com/view/30265b7a1711cc7931b71636.html.
[33] Fink A, Schlake O. Scenario management——An approach for strategic foresight [J]. Competitive Intelligence Review, 2000,74(1):37-45.
[34] O'Connor S, Lai-chong Au. Steering a future through scenarios: Into the academic library of the future [J]. The Journal of Academic Librarianship, 2009,35(1):57-64.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
