[目的/意义] 判断高校图书馆学术型馆藏的数字化趋势，预估纸本馆藏的消亡时间，为高校图书馆服务转型和资源采访提供参考。[方法/过程] 跟踪分析2009、2011、2013-2016共6年文学院教师所引用文献的数字化比例，以折线图描述中外文图书、期刊报纸的数字化趋势；利用对数函数预估中文图书纸本馆藏的消亡时间。[结果/结论] 中文图书2033-2041年间将100%数字化，中文期刊报纸当前已接近100%数字化；2041年，中文学术型文献即无需存在纸本馆藏； 网络共享平台成为新兴的知识获取渠道； 文献版权、网络共享平台、研究者的文献需求变化都影响文献的数字化趋势。
[Purpose/significance] In order to help the service development and collection acquisition of academic libraries, this paper measures the digital trend of academic collection in academic libraries. It estimates the extinction time of paper collection of academic libraries.[Method/process] This paper verified the digital state of references in articles which were published by literature teachers during 2009, 2011, 2013-2016. Then, it concluded the digital trend of books and periodicals with line graphs and estimated the extinction time of paper collection with logarithmic function.[Result/conclusion]First, Chinese books will be 100% digitized between 2033 and 2041. The Chinese periodicals have been close to 100% digitization now. We can conclude that domestic academic libraries do not need paper collection in 2041. The network sharing platform turns to a new channel of knowledge acquisition. The copyright, the network sharing platform and the demand changes of researchers affect the digital trend of literature.
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