[目的/意义]与众多基于未被引现象的统计分析不同，本文利用演绎分析方法探索论文未被引的产生机制。[方法/过程]将未被引现象置于科学交流的宏大背景下，提出论文未被引的竞争-选择机制，指出竞争-选择机制是以文献内容为基础的相关判断与抉择过程，同时受到文献外在特征的深刻影响，以此为基础从时间维度及空间维度展开具体分析过程。[结果/结论]从时间演化角度上看，新旧相关文献间的竞争是引发论文未被引现象的主要原因；从时间截面上看，在问题解决循环往复过程中，文献查询、文献参考及新潜在相关信息表达中的同质文献竞争是产生论文未被引现象的重要原因，而引用选择是以竞争为背景的自发自组织过程。
[Purpose/significance] In this paper, the deductive analysis has been used to explore the mechanism of uncitedness, which is different from other studies where the statistical analysis is used to describe and interpret the uncitedness. [Method/process] Under the grand background of the scientific communication, the competition-selection mechanism was given to interpret the uncitedness. This was a procedure of the relevant judgment and selection related to document contents and was influenced greatly by its external characteristics at the same time. Some analysis was given in the time and space dimension based on the competition-selection mechanism. [Result/conclusion] In terms of the time evolution dimension, the competition between old and new literatures are the main cause of the uncitedness; in terms of the time section, the competition among homogeneous literatures is an important reason of the uncitedness, which is related to the literature searching, the document reference and the expression of new potential related information in the problem-solving iterative processes. The citation selection is a spontaneous self-organized process based on the competitive context.
[1] BURRELL Q L. Will this paper ever be cited?[J]. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 2002, 53(3):232 - 235.
[2] GARFIELD E. How to use citation analysis for faculty evaluations and when is it relevant?[J]. Current contents, 1983, 45(6):5-14.
[3] 杨奕虹,杨贺,万小影,等.利用高被引与零被引数据剖析中国博士学位论文学术影响力[J].情报杂志,2015, 34(7):22-28.
[4] EGGHE L, GUNS R, ROUSSEAU R. Thoughts on uncitedness: Nobel laureates and Fields medalists as case studies[J]. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 2011,62(8):1637-1644.
[5] GARFIELD E. To be an uncited scientist is no cause for shame[J]. The scientist, 1991, 5(6):12.
[6] 胡泽文, 武夷山. 零被引研究文献综述[J]. 情报学报, 2015, 34(2):213-224.
[7] WEALE A R, BAILEY M, LEAR P A. The level of non-citation of articles within a journal as a measure of quality: a comparison to the impact factor[J]. BMC medical research methodology, 2004, 4(1): 14-22.
[8] VAN LEEUWEN T N, MOED H F. Characteristics of journal impact factors: the effects of uncitedness and citation distribution on the understanding of journal impact factors[J]. Scientometrics, 2005,63(2):357-371.
[9] 刘雪立,方红玲,周志新,等.科技期刊反向评价指标-零被引论文率及其与其他文献计量学指标的关系[J].中国科技期刊研究,2011,22(4):525-528.
[10] EGGHE L. The mathematical relation between impact factor and the uncitedness factor [J]. Scientometrics, 2008, 76(1):118-123.
[11] EGGHE L. The distribution of the uncitedness factor and its functional relation with the impact factor[J]. Scientometrics, 2010, 83(3):689-695.
[12] 董建军.中国知网收录的国家自然科学基金论文的被引情况分析[J].中国科技期刊研究,2012,23(5):776- 778.
[13] 刘涛.基于SCI-E国内15所大学1997-2006年科研能力发展态势分析[J].现代情报,2008,28(4):25-29.
[14] 唐晓莉,武群芳,王继民.论文零被引率与期刊影响力关系的研究——以经济学学科为例[J].图书情报工作,2014,58(19):100-104.
[15] BURRELL Q L. Alternative thoughts on uncitedness[J].Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 2012, 63(7):1466-1470.
[16] 钟灿涛.科学交流体系重组的动力因素分析[J].科学学研究,2011,29(9):1304-1310.
[17] ROUSSEAU R. Why am I not cited, or why are multi-authored papers more cited than others?[J]. Journal of documentation, 1992,48(1):79-80.
