[目的/意义] 探究社会化问答平台用户体验的动态演变规律，识别不同阶段用户体验的主要构成要素与变化趋势，为平台建设和服务优化提供建议。[方法/过程] 基于扎根理论提取关键词，构建知乎的用户体验评价体系。采用实验法获取时间序列数据，分析不同阶段用户体验的主要影响因素，运用ARIMA模型预测用户体验3个维度的变化趋势。[结果/结论] 从短期来看：第一阶段，有用性对用户体验的影响最大；中间两阶段，情感的影响最大，有用性次之；第四阶段，用户价值的影响最大，有用性的影响最小。预测结果表明，随着时间推移，除情感在用户体验构成中会有波动外，有用性和用户价值均呈下降趋势。从长远来看，提升用户的情感体验对于提高整体用户体验至关重要。
[Purpose/significance] This paper explored the dynamic evolution of user experience on social Q&A platform, identified the main elements and trends of user experience in different stages, and provided suggestions for platform construction and service optimization.[Method/process] Based on the Grounded Theory, the key words of Zhihu user experience were extracted to construct the evaluation system of Zhihu user experience. Experimental method had been used to obtain time series data to analyze the main factors affecting user experience in different stages. ARIMA model was used as well to predict the trend of three dimensions of user experience.[Result/conclusion] In the short term, in the first stage, usability had the greatest impact on user experience; in the middle two stages, affect had the greatest impact, followed by usability; in the fourth stage, user value had the greatest impact, and usability had the smallest impact. The prediction results showed that, with time passing by, except for the fluctuation of affect in the composition of user experience, usability and user value were declining. In the long run, improving the experience of users' affect couldn't be ignored to improve the overall user experience.
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