[目的/意义] 旨在利用定性模拟（QSIM）方法研究网络信息订阅意愿影响因素及其作用机制。通过构建信息订阅意愿影响因素关系模型，挖掘网络信息订阅行为的演化规律及趋势，以便深入了解用户订阅规律的影响机制，为大众阅读平台的功能制定提供决策依据。[方法/过程] 首先，在梳理相关行为研究理论基础上，归纳出影响订阅意愿的六大因素：订阅内容质量、订阅成本、外界影响、订阅需求、主观感受及个人特征；然后，通过结构化访谈的方式构建影响因素关系粗模型，并进行问卷调查和实证数据采集，对粗模型进行修正；最后，利用QSIM算法驱动模型中各因素间的交互和演化，通过观察和分析，确定订阅意愿各影响因素的演化特征和规律。[结果/结论] 定性模拟方法能有效描述和监测订阅行为特征的变化过程；其中，订阅内容质量、订阅需求、外界因素正向影响订阅意愿；订阅成本负向影响订阅意愿，但影响程度较小。
[Purpose/significance] This paper aims to study the influencing factors and mechanism of online information subscription intention by using qualitative simulation(QSIM). The purpose of this paper is to explore the evolution law and trend of online information subscription behavior by constructing the relationship model of influencing factors of information subscription intention, and deeply understand the influence mechanism of user subscription law, so as to provide decision-making basis for the function of public reading platform. [Method/process] Firstly, on the basis of combing relevant behavioral research theories, six factors influencing subscription intention were summarized:subscription content quality, subscription cost, external influence, subscription demand, subjective feelings and personal characteristics; then, a rough model of influencing factors was constructed by structured interview, and questionnaire survey and empirical data collection were conducted. Finally, we used the QSIM algorithm to drive the dynamic evolution of the interaction among the factors in the model, and determined the evolution law of the influencing factors of subscription intention by observing and analyzing the evolution characteristics. [Result/conclusion] The quality of subscription content, subscription demand and external influence positively affect subscription intention; subscription cost negatively affects subscription intention, but the impact is small; qualitative simulation method can effectively describe and monitor the change process of subscription behavior characteristics.
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