[目的/意义] 强弱连接是影响学科引证知识扩散动态链路预测的重要因素之一。学科知识扩散强弱引证连接相互协同、相互影响，共同促进了学科间的知识交流、融合与创新。学科引证知识扩散动态链路预测中强弱连接效应的探索，可为强弱连接理论应用场景的拓展，学科引证知识扩散行为微观演化规律的揭示以及动态链路预测算法指标的评价、设计与优化提供理论与实践参考。[方法/过程] 依托内外协同的思路理念，构建一种外部网络结构调控与内部微观演化机理剖析相结合的动态链路预测强弱连接效应探测方法，分别从学科引证知识关联权重调节、连边失效触发以及强弱连接模体分析三个维度，对基于共同邻居相似性的学科引证知识扩散动态链路预测中的强弱连接效应问题进行探讨。[结果/结论] 强连接在学科引证知识扩散网络演化及动态链路预测过程中扮演着更加重要的角色；链路预测中的强弱连接现象不仅与学科引证关联权重有关，还会受到共同邻居数目以及网络微观模体结构的影响；知识宿学科的吸纳融合能力相对于知识源学科的溢出辐射能力来说，在新连边衍生过程中的主导地位更加突出。
[Purpose/significance] The strong and weak ties is one of the important factors that affect the dynamic link prediction of knowledge diffusion in disciplinary citation networks. The strong and weak citation ties in diffusion of disciplinary knowledge jointly promote knowledge exchange, integration and innovation among disciplines with coordination and mutual effect. The exploration of strong and weak ties in the dynamic link prediction of knowledge diffusion in disciplinary citation networks can provide theoretical and practical references for expanding the application of the strong and weak ties theory, revealing the micro-evolution law of knowledge diffusion behavior of disciplinary citation, and evaluating, designing and optimizing dynamic link prediction algorithm indicators.[Method/process] In this paper, on the basis of synergistic idea, the method of detecting strong and weak ties in the dynamic link prediction was constructed by controlling external structure and analyzing internal evolution mechanism of the networks. To be specific, the influence of strong and weak ties on the dynamic link prediction of knowledge diffusion in disciplinary citation networks based on common neighbor similarity was discussed from three perspectives of adjustment of knowledge connection weight in disciplinary citation networks, link failure triggering and motif analysis.[Result/conclusion] The research has shown that, firstly, strong ties play a more important role in evolution of knowledge diffusion in disciplinary citation networks and dynamic link prediction; secondly, strong and weak ties effect in link prediction is not only related to connection weight of disciplinary citation networks, but affected by the number of common neighbor and micro motif structure; thirdly, compared with the spillover ability of knowledge from source discipline, the absorbing ability of knowledge in destination discipline has a more prominent impact on the process of developing new knowledge links.
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