图书情报工作

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2021 , Vol. 65 >Issue 19: 4 - 15

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2021.19.001

专题：突发公共卫生事件中网络谣言治理及个人信息保护研究

突发公共卫生事件下网络谣言传播逆转模型及仿真研究

  • 王晰巍 ,
  • 李玥琪 ,
  • 邱程程 ,
  • 胡欢
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  • 1 吉林大学管理学院 长春 130022;
    2 吉林大学大数据管理研究中心 长春 130022;
    3 吉林大学网络空间治理研究中心 长春 130022;
    4 江西理工大学经济管理学院 赣州 341000
王晰巍(ORCID:0000-0002-5850-0126),教授,博士生导师;邱程程(ORCID:0000-0002-0671-0340),硕士研究生;胡欢(ORCID:0000-0003-1285-2713),硕士研究生。

收稿日期: 2021-04-12

  修回日期: 2021-07-07

  网络出版日期: 2021-10-09

基金资助

本文系国家社会科学基金重大项目"大数据驱动的社交网络舆情主题图谱构建及调控策略研究"（项目编号：18ZDA310）和吉林大学国家发展与安全（生物安全）专项研究课题"生物安全风险治理的舆论传播体系研究（重点课题）"研究成果之一。

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Reversal Model and Simulation of Online Rumor Propagation During Public Health Emergencies

  • Wang Xiwei ,
  • Li Yueqi ,
  • Qiu Chengcheng ,
  • Hu Huan
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  • 1 School of Management, Jilin University, Changchun 130022;
    2 Research Center for Big Data Management, Jilin University, Changchun 130022;
    3 Research Center of Cyberspace Governance, Jilin University, Changchun 130022;
    4 School of Economics and Management, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000

Received date: 2021-04-12

  Revised date: 2021-07-07

  Online published: 2021-10-09

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摘要

[目的/意义] 突发公共卫生事件期间，网民内生健康信息需求的同时缺乏健康信息的科学知识，为造谣者发布和传播网络谣言提供了机会。无效的科学知识及虚假新闻会对流行病爆发期间的社会稳定产生严重负面影响，扰乱社会秩序。因此构建有效的网络谣言传播-逆转模型以控制网络谣言的传播并降低其负面影响极为重要。[方法/过程] 研究采纳科学知识水平理论与网络谣言辟谣策略，基于SIR模型构建SCNDR网络谣言逆转系统动力学模型。采纳Anylogic软件对提出的SCNDR模型进行模拟仿真，并对模型的参数进行敏感性分析，提出了提升网络谣言传播-逆转模型逆转效率的具体策略。[结果/结论] 研究提出的SCNDR模型有效模拟了突发公共卫生事件期间网络谣言的传播-逆转过程，影响网络谣言逆转效率的关键因素分别为用户科学知识水平普及率、官方辟谣信息公开时间及轻信节点转化效率。

关键词： 网络谣言; 突发公共卫生事件; 逆转模型; 系统仿真

本文引用格式

王晰巍 , 李玥琪 , 邱程程 , 胡欢 . 突发公共卫生事件下网络谣言传播逆转模型及仿真研究[J]. 图书情报工作, 2021 , 65(19) : 4 -15 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2021.19.001

Abstract

[Purpose/significance] During public health emergencies, due to folks' endogenous demand for health information and lack of scientific knowledge of health information, it stimulates the mass media to spread health information, and also provides opportunities for rumors to publish and spread online rumors. Ineffective scientific knowledge and false news will have a serious negative impact on social stability and disrupt social order during the outbreak of epidemics. Therefore, it is very important to build an effective reversal model of online rumor propagation to control the spread of online rumors and reduce its negative impact.[Method/process] The research adopted the theory of scientific knowledge level and the strategy of online rumors reputation, and constructed the SCNDR online rumor reversal model based on SIR model. The Anylogic software was adopted to simulate the SCNDR model, and the sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the model was carried out.[Result/conclusion] The SCNDR model proposed in this study effectively simulates the reversal process of online rumors during public health emergencies. The key factors affecting the reversal efficiency of online rumors are the penetration rate of users' scientific knowledge level, the public time of official information and the conversion efficiency of credulous users.

Key words： online rumor; public health emergency; reversal model; system simulation

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