[目的/意义] 科技前沿方向具有前瞻性、先导性、探索性乃至颠覆性，是世界主要国家科技竞争的焦点。探讨科技前沿方向的情报监测分析与综合研判方法，旨在进一步优化情报研究系统和及时地监测分析相关情报信息，研判世界科技前沿方向及其发展趋势。[方法/过程] 基于长期对世界科技发展趋势及前沿方向进行情报监测分析和研判的工作实践，经过深入思考总结得出，对科技前沿方向全面科学的把握需要经过系统的情报监测、科学的情报分析及综合研判，并在此基础上提出科技前沿方向情报监测、情报分析及综合研判的方法体系框架。[结果/结论] 对于情报监测，提出依照科技发展的进程，按照时间发展脉络，选择分别可以体现过去、现在、未来不同时期科技发展的多数据源进行情报监测；对于情报分析，提出以揭示科技发展规律和感知科技发展变化的早期预警信号为目标，针对不同数据源采用合适的分析方法；对于综合研判，提出综合集成情报监测和分析结果，在分析科技发展趋势的基础上，依据6项标准来研判一个研究方向是否是前沿方向，包括是否促成新学科的诞生，是否涌现出大量突破性成果，是否变革人类的思想认识，是否提升人类改造自然的能力，是否变革社会生产方式或是否改变人类生活方式。
[Purpose/Significance] S&T frontier direction is forward-looking, pioneering, exploratory and even destructive, and it is the S&T competition focus of major countries in the world. The methods of intelligence monitoring, analysis and comprehensive study and judgment for the S&T frontier direction are discussed, aiming to further optimize intelligence research system and monitor and analyze the related intelligence information timely, and study and judge the world's S&T frontier direction and its development trend.[Method/Process] Based on the long-term work practice of intelligence monitoring, analysis and judgment of the development trend and frontier direction of world S&T, through in-depth thinking, it was concluded that the comprehensive and accurate grasp of S&T frontier direction required systematic intelligence monitoring, scientific intelligence analysis and comprehensive study and judgment, and proposed the corresponding methodological framework for intelligence monitoring, intelligence analysis and comprehensive study and judgment in the S&T frontier direction.[Result/Conclusion] Regarding intelligence monitoring, complying with the process of S&T development, it is proposed to select multiple data sources for intelligence monitoring that can reflect the S&T development of different periods including the past, present and future according to the time development; For intelligence analysis, it is proposed to adopt appropriate analysis methods for different data sources with the goal of revealing the laws of S&T development and perceiving the early warning signals of S&T evolution; For comprehensive study and judgment, it is proposed to integrate the results of intelligence monitoring and analysis, and to study and judge whether a research direction is a cutting-edge direction according to six standards based on the analyzing of S&T development trend, including whether it promotes the birth of new disciplines, whether a large number of breakthrough achievements has emerged, whether it changes human thinking and understanding, and whether it improves human ability to transform nature, and whether to change the social production mode or human lifestyle.
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