情报研究

面向重大突发公共卫生事件舆情的政府辟谣信息效果评价研究——基于信息覆盖与信息说服双视角的实证

  • 陈娟 ,
  • 谢丹 ,
  • 邓胜利 ,
  • 孙晶琼
展开
  • 1 武汉工程大学管理学院 武汉 430205;
    2 华中农业大学公共管理学院 武汉 430070;
    3 武汉大学信息管理学院 武汉 430072
陈娟,教授,博士,博士生导师;谢丹,硕士;邓胜利,教授,博士,博士生导师。

收稿日期: 2024-03-15

  修回日期: 2024-08-01

  网络出版日期: 2024-12-04

基金资助

本文系国家社会科学基金一般项目"面向动态疫情的政府辟谣信息效果评价及提升路径研究"(项目编号:21BTQ101)研究成果之一。

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Government Rumor Refutation in Major Public Health Emergencies: An Empirical Study from the Dual Perspectives of Information Coverage and Persuasion

  • Chen Juan ,
  • Xie Dan ,
  • Deng Shengli ,
  • Sun Jingqiong
Expand
  • 1 College of Management, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205;
    2 College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070;
    3 School of Information Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072

Received date: 2024-03-15

  Revised date: 2024-08-01

  Online published: 2024-12-04

Supported by

This work is supported by the National Social Science Fund of China project titled “Evaluation and Improvement Path of the Persuasive Effect of Government Rumor Refutation Information in the Face of Dynamic Epidemics”(Grant No.21BTQ101).

摘要

[目的/意义] 考虑重大突发公共卫生事件舆情情境下政府辟谣信息效果的过程性与结果性,提升政府辟谣信息覆盖率和说服力,量化政府辟谣能力,为政府舆情治理提供实践指引。[方法/过程] 基于信息覆盖与信息说服双视角,引入社会网络分析指标与信息说服理论,构建政府辟谣信息效果二维评价指标体系,并使用层次分析法进行权重设计。以新冠疫情舆情为实证分析对象,通过社会网络分析、情感分析、综合评价进行重大突发公共卫生事件舆情情境下政府辟谣信息效果测度实证,验证评价指标体系有效性。[结果/结论] 实证分析结果表明,该评价指标体系能有效反映重大突发公共卫生事件舆情情境下的政府辟谣信息效果,政府应根据舆情发展周期,制定阶段化辟谣策略,创新辟谣信息的传播路径,并建立持续的辟谣效果评估机制,以深化辟谣信息效果,提升网络谣言治理水平。

本文引用格式

陈娟 , 谢丹 , 邓胜利 , 孙晶琼 . 面向重大突发公共卫生事件舆情的政府辟谣信息效果评价研究——基于信息覆盖与信息说服双视角的实证[J]. 图书情报工作, 2024 , 68(23) : 63 -75 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2024.23.006

Abstract

[Purpose/Significance] This paper explores the effectiveness of government rumor-refuting information in the context of significant public health emergencies, focusing on both the process and outcomes.It aims to quantify the government’s ability to manage online rumors, improve the reach and persuasiveness of government-provided information, and offer practical guidance for government public opinion management.[Method/Process] Utilizing a dual perspective of information coverage and persuasion, this paper integrated social network analysis metrics and the theory of information influence to construct a two-dimensional evaluative framework for the effectiveness of government rumor-refuting information.The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to determine the weights of the indices.The COVID-19 pandemic was taken as a case study for empirical analysis, employing social network analysis, sentiment analysis, and comprehensive evaluation to measure the government’s rumor-refuting efforts across the public opinion cycle of a public health emergency.This approach validated the effectiveness of the evaluative system proposed.[Result/Conclusion] The empirical results demonstrate that the evaluative framework effectively reflects the impact of government rumor-refuting information in the face of major public health emergencies.It recommends that governments develop phased rumor-refuting strategies in response to the progression of public sentiment, innovate in the dissemination pathways of corrective information, and establish a continuous assessment mechanism for the effectiveness of their rumor-refuting efforts.Such actions are crucial for enhancing the influence of rumor-refuting information and elevating the caliber of online rumor management.

参考文献

[1] 黄丽娜, 吴贝莉. 社交媒体中疫情“谣言池”的信息特征[J]. 青年记者, 2020(27): 29-30. (HUANG L N, WU B L. Information characteristics of the “rumor pool” in social media during the epidemic[J]. Youth journalist, 2020(27): 29-30.)
[2] 周茂君, 杜永欣. 重大突发公共事件中的谣言传播及协同治理机制——基于新冠肺炎疫情期间谣言信息的研究[J]. 传媒观察, 2020(9): 15-23. (ZHOU M J, DU Y X. Rumor spreading and coordinated governance in major public emergencies[J]. Media observer, 2020(9): 15-23.)
[3] 杨康, 杨超, 朱庆华. 基于社交媒体的突发公共卫生事件公众信息需求与危机治理研究[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2021, 44(3): 59-68. (YANG K, YANG C, ZHU Q H. Research on public information demand and crisis management of public health emergency based on social media[J]. Information studies: theory & application, 2021, 44(3): 59-68.)
[4] 段尧清, 朱永迪, 蔡启宾, 等. 突发公共卫生事件下公众持续使用政府信息行为影响因素研究——基于QCA的触发路径及演化分析[J]. 信息资源管理学报, 2022, 12(3): 89-99. (DUAN Y Q, ZHU Y D, CAI Q B, et al. Research on influencing factors of government information public sustainable use behavior under public health emergency: trigger path and evolution analysis based on QCA[J]. Journal of information resources management, 2022, 12(3): 89-99.)
[5] 韩旭, 李阳. 突发事件情境下社交媒体辟谣信息传播效果影响因素研究[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2022, 45(8): 97-103. (HAN X, LI Y. Research on the influencing factors of social media rumor-refuting information dissemination effect in emergencies[J]. Information studies: theory & application, 2022, 45(8): 97-103.)
[6] BORDIA P, DIFONZO N, Travers V. Denying rumors of organizational change: a higher source is not always better[J]. Communication research reports, 1998, 15(2): 188-197.
[7] 王国华, 王戈, 杨腾飞, 等. 网络辟谣平台的运行及效果研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2014, 33(9): 100-105, 134. (WANG G H, WANG G, YANG T F, et al. Research of operation and effect of rumor-refuting platform[J]. Journal of intelligence, 2014, 33(9): 100-105, 134.)
[8] 李新月, 王莹, 韩文婷, 等. 健康辟谣信息的内容、质量与优化研究[J]. 情报资料工作, 2022, 43(3): 84-93. (LI X Y, WANG Y, HAN W T, ZHU Q H, et al. Research on the content, quality and optimization of health rumor-refuting information[J]. Information and documentation services, 2022, 43(3): 84-93.)
[9] 王超. 辟谣何以失灵?——一个信息传播效果视角的解释框架[J]. 情报杂志, 2019, 38(5): 123-129. (WANG C. Why did the rumor-refuting fail?An interpretation framework from the perspective of information dissemination effect[J]. Journal of intelligence, 2019, 38(5): 123-129.)
[10] 刘妃, 曹敏, 左美云. 辟谣平台的评价指标体系构建及实证研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2021, 40(9): 95-100, 94. (LIU F, CAO M, ZUO M Y. Construction and empirical research on evaluation index system of rumor-refuting platforms[J]. Journal of intelligence, 2021, 40(9): 95-100, 94.)
[11] 李宗敏, 张琪, 杜鑫雨. 基于辟谣微博的互动及热门评论情感倾向的辟谣效果研究——以新冠疫情相关辟谣微博为例[J]. 新闻知识, 2020(11): 14-21. (LI Z M, ZHANG Q, DU X Y. Research on rumor-refutation effectiveness based on the interactions and popular comments’ emotional tendencies of the rumor-refuting microblogs: taking rumor-refuting microblogs related with covid-2019 as an example[J]. News research, 2020(11): 14-21.)
[12] 顾远萍, 王文思. 多元话语主体视角下健康信息传播机制研究[J]. 情报科学, 2023, 41(9): 27-36. (GU Y P, WANG W S. Health information dissemination mechanism from the perspective of multiple discourse subjects[J]. Information science, 2023, 41(9): 27-36.)
[13] XU K, ZHANG X. Mining community in mobile social network[J]. Procedia engineering, 2012, 29: 3080-3084.
[14] 易明, 张雪, 李梓奇. 社交网络中辟谣信息传播效果的影响因素研究[J]. 情报科学, 2022, 40(5): 3-10. (YI M, ZHANG X, LI Z Q. The influencing factors of the spreading effect of rumor-refuting information in social network[J]. Information science, 2022, 40(5): 3-10.)
[15] 李中梅, 张向先, 陶兴, 等. 新媒体环境下智库信息传播效果评价指标体系构建研究[J]. 情报科学, 2020, 38(2): 59-67. (LI Z M, ZHANG X X, TAO X, et al. Construction of evaluation index system of think tank information dissemination effect under the new media environment[J]. Information science, 2020, 38(2): 59-67.)
[16] HOVLAND C I, JANIS I L, KELLY H H. Communication and persuasion: psychological studies of opinion change[J]. Psychological bulletin, 1953, 50(4): 359-397.
[17] MOHSENIAN R M, GHADIRY M. Media persuasion and a case study of the media campaign on “opt-out from subsidy plan” in Iran[J]. Global media journal-persian edition, 2019, 13(2): 189-206.
[18] HUNTER J E. Persuasion in advertising: a theoretical and empirical review[J]. Journal of consumer research, 2016, 15(3): 449-463.
[19] CHAIKEN S, LIBERMAN A, EAGLY A. Heuristic and systematic information processing within and beyond the persuasion context[M]//ULEMAN J, BARGH J. Unintended thought. New York: Guilford Press, 1989: 212-252.
[20] ALBARRACIN D, KUMKALE G T. Affect as information in persuasion: a model of affect identification and discounting[J]. Journal of personality and social psychology, 2003, 84(3): 453.
[21] ESCALAS J E, STERN B B. Sympathy and empathy: emotional responses to advertising dramas[J]. Journal of consumer research, 2003, 29(4): 566-578.
[22] FORGAS J P. Mood and judgment: the affect infusion model (AIM)[J]. Psychological bulletin, 1995, 117(1): 39-66.
[23] 刘于思, 徐煜. 在线社会网络中的谣言与辟谣信息传播效果:探讨网络结构因素与社会心理过程的影响[J]. 新闻与传播研究, 2016, 23(11): 51-69, 127. (LIU Y S, XU Y. Rumor and rumor denials in online social networks: exploring the influence of structural factors and social psychological processes[J]. Journalism & communication, 2016, 23(11): 51-69, 127.)
[24] HOLLEBEEK L D. Demystifying consumer brand engagement: exploring the loyalty nexus and its antecedents[J]. Journal of marketing management, 2011, 27(7-8): 785-807.
[25] 付少雄, 苏一琦, 孙建军. 基于启发-系统式模型的辟谣短视频传播效果影响因素研究[J]. 情报学报, 2024, 43(4): 457-469. (FU S X, SU Y Q, SUN J Y. Factors that influence the dissemination effects of short videos of refuting rumors based on heuristic-systematic model[J]. Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information, 2024, 43(4): 457-469.)
[26] 高晓晶, 喻梦倩, 杨家燕. 图书馆短视频传播及互动效果影响因素模型及实证分析—基于“上瘾模型”的探索[J]. 图书情报工作, 2021(10): 13-22. (GAO X J, YU M Q, YANG J Y. Model and empirical analysis on the influencing factors of library short video transmission and interaction effect: exploration based on “the hook model”[J]. Library and information service, 2021(10): 13-22.)
[27] 张鹏, 赵动员, 梅蕾. 移动社交网络信息传播研究述评与展望[J]. 情报科学, 2020, 38(2): 170-176. (ZHANG P, ZHAO D Y, MEI L. Review and prospect of information dissemination research on mobile social network[J]. Information science, 2020, 38(2): 170-176.)
[28] 刘银萍, 李光强, 余容, 等. 基于AHP的社交网络信息可信度评价模型构建[J]. 情报探索, 2018(9): 28-34. (LIU Y P, LI G Q, YU R, et al. Credibility evaluation model of social network information based on analytic hierarchy process[J]. Information research, 2018(9): 28-34.)
[29] 马宁, 刘怡君. 微博中谣言信息与辟谣信息综合影响力对比研究[J]. 情报资料工作, 2020, 41(3): 41-48. (MA N, LIU Y J. Comparative research on the comprehensive influence of rumor information and refute rumor information in Weibo[J]. Information and documentation services, 2020, 41(3): 41-48.)
[30] 刘健, 毕强, 李瑞. 微博舆情信息传播效果评价指标体系构建研究——基于模糊数据包络分析法[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2016, 39(12): 31-38. (LIU J, BI Q, LI R. Research on the evaluation index system construction of the effect of micro-blog public opinion information dissemination[J]. Information studies: theory & application, 2016, 39(12): 31-38.)
[31] 张雪梅, 王友翠. 基于投入产出分析的政务微博舆情信息传播效率评价研究[J]. 情报科学, 2020, 38(5): 43-48. (ZHANG X M, WANG Y C. Information dissemination efficiency evaluation of network public opinion of the government microblogs based on input-output analysis[J]. Information science, 2020, 38(5): 43-48.)
[32] 冯小东, 马捷, 蒋国银. 社会信任、理性行为与政务微博传播:基于文本挖掘的实证研究[J]. 情报学报, 2019, 38(9): 954-965. (FENG X D, MA J, JIANG G Y. Social trust, rational behavior, and government microblogs’ dissemination: an empirical analysis based on text mining[J]. Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information, 2019, 38(9): 954-965.)
[33] 刘晓娟, 王昊贤, 肖雪, 等. 基于微博特征的政务微博影响因素研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2013, 32(12): 35-41. (LIU X J, WANG H X, XIAO X, et al. Influencing factors of government microblogs’ communication effects: a research based on the characteristics of microblog[J]. Journal of intelligence, 2013, 32(12): 35-41.)
[34] OLSON D L. The analytic hierarchy process[M]. New York: Springer, 1996: 5-22.
[35] 曹树金, 岳文玉. 突发公共卫生事件微博舆情主题挖掘与演化分析[J]. 信息资源管理学报, 2020, 10(6): 28-37. (CAO S J, YUE W Y. Topic mining and evolution analysis of public opinion on microblog of public health emergencies[J]. Journal of information resource management, 2020, 10(6): 28-37.)
[36] 毕鹏, 陈伟, 丁小洲. 基于SIR演化博弈模型的突发公共危机事件网络舆情引导研究[J]. 系统科学学报, 2024(3): 77-81. (BI P, CHEN W, DING X Z. Research on public sentiment guidance of public crisis incidents based on sir evolutionary game model[J]. Journal of systems science, 2024(3): 77-81.)
[37] 贾若男, 王晰巍, 于雪, 等. 突发公共事件网络舆情时空演化分析模型及算法研究[J]. 现代情报, 2023, 43(2): 137-145. (JIA R N, WANG X W, YU X, et al. Research on the spatio-temporal evolution analysis model and algorithm of online public opinion in public emergencies[J]. Journal of modern information, 2023, 43(2): 137-145.)
[38] 马腾, 殷跃, 赵树宽, 等. 多维数据融合的突发公共卫生事件网络舆情演化特征研究[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2022, 45(12): 170-177. (MA T, YIN Y, ZHAO S K, et al. Research on the evolution of network public opinion on public health emergencies based on multidimensional data fusion[J]. Information studies: theory & application, 2022, 45(12): 170-177.)
[39] 曾子明, 陈思语. 基于LDA与BERT-BiLSTM-Attention模型的突发公共卫生事件网络舆情演化分析[J]. 情报理论与实践, 2023, 46(9): 158-166. (ZENG Z M, CHEN S Y. Evolution analysis of network public opinion of public health emergencies based on LDA and BERT-BiLSTM-Attention model[J]. Information studies: theory & application, 2023, 46(9): 158-166.)
[40] 中华人民共和国国务院. 突发公共卫生事件应急条例[EB/OL]. [2024-10-03]. https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2008-03/28/content_6399.htm.
[41] 王建华, 布玉婷. 突发公共事件背景下社交网络谣言治理的现实困境与对策研究[J]. 新闻与传播评论, 2020, 73(5): 34-45. (WANG J H, BU Y T. Research on the realistic predicament and countermeasures of rumors governance in social networks under the background of public emergencies[J]. Journalism & communication review, 2020, 73(5): 34-45.)
[42] 李彪. 网络事件传播阶段及阈值研究——以2010年34个热点网络舆情事件为例[J]. 国际新闻界, 2011, 33(10): 22-27. (LI B. Communication phase and its threshold of network events: 34 network events in 2010 as an example[J]. Chinese journal of journalism & communication, 2011, 33(10): 22-27.)
[43] 范敏, 周建新. 信息畸变与权力博弈:重大疫情下网络谣言的生成与传播机制[J]. 新闻与传播评论, 2020, 73(4): 64-72. (FAN M, ZHOU J X. Research on the causes and spreading of online rumors in public health emergencies: mechanism and governance strategies[J]. Journalism & communication review, 2020, 73(4): 64-72.)
[44] 刘小平, 田晓颖, 肖光杰. 社会网络分析在微博信息传播中的应用研究[J]. 新媒体研究, 2018, 4(5): 25-26. (LIU X P, TIAN X Y, XIAO G J. Research on the application of social network analysis in the dissemination of information on Weibo[J]. New media research, 2018, 4(5): 25-26.)
[45] 黄月琴, 黄宪成. “转发”行为的扩散与新媒体赋权——基于微博自闭症议题的社会网络分析[J]. 新闻记者, 2021(5): 36-47. (HUANG Y Q, HUANG X C. Diffusion of “retweet” behavior and empowerment by new media: a social network analysis based on the Weibo topic of autism[J]. Shanghai journalism review, 2021(5): 36-47.)
[46] 邱泽国, 贺百艳. 基于PCA-Spectral-LDA的网络舆情聚类和情感演进分析:一个微博文本挖掘研究[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2021, 41(10): 2906-2918. (QIU Z G, HE B Y. Analysis of internet public opinion clustering and sentiment evolution based on PCA-Spectral-LDA: a research on Weibo text mining[J]. Journal of systems science and mathematical, 2021, 41(10): 2906-2918.)
[47] SOUTHWELL B G, THORSON E A. The prevalence, consequence, and remedy of misinformation in mass media systems[J]. Journal of communication, 2015, 65(4): 589-595.
文章导航

/

〈 〉