研究论文

基于弱信号的颠覆性技术早期识别方法研究

  • 唐虎林 ,
  • 苏成 ,
  • 李曼迪 ,
  • 李旺雨
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  • 中国科学技术信息研究所 北京 100038
唐虎林,硕士研究生;苏成,研究员,博士,硕士生导师,通信作者,E-mail:sucheng@istic.ac.cn;李曼迪,助理研究员,硕士;李旺雨,硕士研究生。

收稿日期: 2024-07-19

  修回日期: 2024-10-08

  网络出版日期: 2025-05-16

基金资助

本文系国家社会科学基金一般项目 “面向颠覆性技术早期识别的弱信号监测体系设计与应用研究”(项目编号:22BTQ067)研究成果之一。

Research on Early Identification Method of Disruptive Technologies Based on Weak Signals

  • Tang Hulin ,
  • Su Cheng ,
  • Li Mandi ,
  • Li Wangyu
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  • Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China, Beijing 100038
Tang Hulin, master candidate; Su Cheng, professor, PhD, master supervisor, corresponding author, E-mail: sucheng@istic.ac.cn; Li Mandi, research assistant, master’s degree; Li Wangyu, master candidate.

Received date: 2024-07-19

  Revised date: 2024-10-08

  Online published: 2025-05-16

Supported by

This work is supported by the National Social Science Fund of China project titled “Research on the Design and Application of a Weak Signal Monitoring System for Early Identification of Disruptive Technologies” (Grant No. 22BTQ067).

摘要

[目的/意义] 旨在提出一种基于弱信号分析的颠覆性技术早期识别方法,以支持科技创新的前瞻性布局。[方法/过程] 依据颠覆性技术弱信号模糊性、前瞻性的主要特征及其表现形式,构建颠覆性技术弱信号测度指标体系,提出基于弱信号的颠覆性技术早期识别方法。主要流程包括信号扫描、基于弱信号的模糊性指标发现候选颠覆性技术主题、基于弱信号的前瞻性指标判定颠覆性技术。最后以信息技术领域2019年至2023年的科技动态以及科技论文为数据基础进行实证。[结果/结论] 通过弱信号词的关联实现技术、市场、政策等信号的整合可有效克服单一数据源带来的局限性和噪声干扰。信息技术领域的6G通讯技术、量子计算技术、忆阻器存算一体芯片技术等5项是早期颠覆性技术,其中太赫兹通讯技术、量子处理器、视频生成技术等10项是具有高颠覆性潜力的早期技术方向。

本文引用格式

唐虎林 , 苏成 , 李曼迪 , 李旺雨 . 基于弱信号的颠覆性技术早期识别方法研究[J]. 图书情报工作, 2025 , 69(10) : 42 -61 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2025.10.005

Abstract

[Purpose/Significance] This paper develops an early identification method for disruptive technologies based on weak signal analysis, with the purpose of supporting forward-looking layouts in scientific and technological innovation. [Method/Process] Based on the main characteristics of weak signal ambiguity and foresight of disruptive technology and its manifestation, this paper constructed the weak signal measurement index system of disruptive technology and proposed the early identification method of disruptive technology based on weak signal. The main process included signal scanning, discovery of candidate disruptive technology themes based on weak-signal ambiguity indicators, and determination of disruptive technologies based on weak-signal forward-looking indicators. Finally, an empirical study was conducted based on the data of science and technology dynamics and scientific and technological papers in the field of information technology from 2019 to 2023. [Result/Conclusion] This research elucidates that the integration of signals from technology, markets, policies, and other domains, achieved through the association of weak signal terms, can effectively mitigate the limitations and noise interference inherent in single data sources. 5 items in the field of information technology, such as 6G communication technology, quantum computing technology, and amnesia storage-calculation all-in-one chip technology, are early disruptive technologies, and 10 items, such as terahertz communication technology, quantum processor, and video generating technology, are early technology directions with high disruptive potentials.

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