研究论文

技术差距视域下产业技术链风险测度及其演化研究

  • 冉从敬 ,
  • 程凡 ,
  • 陈苏佑 ,
  • 李旺
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  • 1 武汉大学信息管理学院 武汉 430072;
    2 东风汽车集团有限公司研发总院 武汉 430056
冉从敬,教授,博士,博士生导师;程凡,博士研究生,通信作者,E-mail:15072381099@163.com;陈苏佑,工程师,学士;李旺,博士研究生。

收稿日期: 2025-02-25

  修回日期: 2025-07-01

  网络出版日期: 2026-04-30

基金资助

本文系山东省自然科学基金青年项目“基于专利计量与机器学习的校企技术合作供需智能匹配方法研究”(项目编号:ZR2023QG105); 国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于知识元的高校专利质量智能判别及其推荐研究”(项目编号:23CTQ028)研究成果之一。

Risk Measurement and Evolution of Risks in Industrial Technology Chain from the Perspective of Technology Gap

  • Ran Congjing ,
  • Cheng Fan ,
  • Chen Suyou ,
  • Li Wang
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  • 1 School of Information Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072;
    2 Dongfeng Motor Corporation Research and Development Institute, Wuhan 430056
Feng Jia, Associate Professor, PhD, Master’s Supervisor;Wei Chengxuan, Master’s Candidate, Corresponding Author, E-mail: weicx@mails.jlu.edu,cn;Ma Jialei, Doctoral Candidate.

Received date: 2025-02-25

  Revised date: 2025-07-01

  Online published: 2026-04-30

Supported by

This work is supported by the Youth Project of the Shandong Province Natural Science Foundation, titled “Research on Intelligent Matching Method of Supply and Demand for University-Enterprise Technology Cooperation Based on Patent Measurement and Machine Learning”(Grant No. ZR2023QG105); and the Youth Program of the National Social Science Fund of China, titled “Intelligent Judgment of Patent Quality in Universities Based on Knowledge Element and its Recommendation Research”(Grant No.23CTQ028).

摘要

[目的/意义] 构建产业技术链风险测度方法,对长时间跨度下的风险演化轨迹进行系统评估,从而为突破关键核心技术“卡脖子”困局提供方法借鉴。[方法/过程] 从产业技术链内涵特征与技术差距理论出发,构建“技术水平—技术价值—技术复杂度”(Level-Value-Complexity, LVC)三维风险框架,并据此提出融合熵权—TOPSIS的竞争力指数与风险指数测度方法,定量识别技术主体各环节优劣势,从技术链整体与技术环节两级视角揭示不同技术主体的风险差异及时序演化轨迹。[结果/结论] 以新能源汽车产业为例的实证表明,基于LVC三维风险框架的测度方法显著提升产业技术链风险评估的维度完备性与决策支撑力,拓展并深化产业技术链风险理论与测度方法,为产业技术政策优化、前瞻技术布局及技术链安全治理提供科学支撑。

本文引用格式

冉从敬 , 程凡 , 陈苏佑 , 李旺 . 技术差距视域下产业技术链风险测度及其演化研究[J]. 图书情报工作, 2026 , 70(9) : 13 -26 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2026.09.002

Abstract

[Purpose/Significance] Constructing an industrial technology chain risk measurement method and systematically evaluating the risk evolution trajectory over a long period can provide a methodological reference for breaking through the “bottleneck” dilemma of key core technologies. [Method/Process] Starting from the connotation characteristics of the industrial technology chain and technology gap theory, this study constructed a three-dimensional risk framework of “technology level-technology value-technology complexity”(LVC), and proposed a competitiveness index and risk index measurement method integrating Entropy Weight-TOPSIS based on this. It quantitatively identified the advantages and disadvantages of each link of the technology subjects, and revealed the risk differences and time-series evolution trajectories of different subjects from the perspective of the overall technology chain and technology links. [Result/Conclusion] Taking the “New Energy Vehicle” industry as an example, the empirical results show that the measurement method based on the LVC three-dimensional risk framework can significantly improve the dimensional completeness and decision-making support of the industrial technology chain risk assessment. This study expands and deepens the theory and measurement methods of industrial chain risks, and provides scientific support for the optimization of industrial technology policies, forward-looking technology layouts and technology chain security governance.

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