研究论文

基于技术管制政策文本的技术机会识别研究——以光刻技术为例

  • 刘琨 ,
  • 房俊民 ,
  • 刘春江
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  • 1 中国科学院成都文献情报中心 成都 610299;
    2 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院信息资源管理系 北京 100190
刘琨,硕士研究生;房俊民,研究馆员,硕士,硕士生导师,通信作者,E-mail:fjm@clas.ac.cn;刘春江,高级工程师,博士。

收稿日期: 2025-04-14

  修回日期: 2025-06-08

  网络出版日期: 2026-06-09

基金资助

本文系国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于弱信号时效网络演化分析的变革性科技创新主题早期识别方法研究”(项目编号:72274113)和中国科学院成都文献情报中心创新基金项目“专利情报智能分析平台”(项目编号:E4Z0000502)研究成果之一。

Research on Technology Opportunity Identification Based on Technology Control Policies: A Case Study of Lithography Technology

  • Liu Kun ,
  • Fang Junmin ,
  • Liu Chunjiang
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  • 1 National Science Library (Chengdu), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610299;
    2 Department of Information Resources Management, School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
Liu Kun, Master’s Candidate; Fang Junmin, Research Librarian, Master’s Degree, Master’s Supervisor, Corresponding Author, E-mail: fjm@clas.ac.cn; Liu Chunjiang, Senior Engineer, PhD.

Received date: 2025-04-14

  Revised date: 2025-06-08

  Online published: 2026-06-09

Supported by

This work is supported by the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, titled “Early Identification of Transformative Technological Innovation Topics Based on Temporal Network Evolution Analysis of Weak Signals” (Grant No. 72274113) and the project of Innovation Fund of the Chengdu Library and Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, titled “Intelligent Patent Information Analysis Platform” (Grant No. E4Z0000502).

摘要

[目的/意义] 在全球科技竞争加剧的背景下,如何更有效地识别和预测国家技术发展中欠发达的技术领域和未开发的技术机会,仍属于亟待解决的问题。[方法/过程] 提出一种基于技术管制政策文本的科技情报分析框架,结合大语言模型提示词工程和生成式拓扑映射(GTM)技术分别构建GTM专利地图和多维GTM地图并挖掘欠发达技术节点和技术空白点,然后设计多维评测指标体系,运用CRITIC法进行综合评估确定技术机会点,最后通过逆映射技术进行技术解读。[结果/结论] 选取商业管制清单光刻技术条款为实证案例,识别出国内欠发达关键技术点6个,潜在技术创新机会点3个,并通过调研验证了本方法的科学性和有效性,此框架旨在为相关部门科技政策制定和技术战略布局提供科学依据。

本文引用格式

刘琨 , 房俊民 , 刘春江 . 基于技术管制政策文本的技术机会识别研究——以光刻技术为例[J]. 图书情报工作, 2026 , 70(12) : 67 -78 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2026.12.006

Abstract

[Purpose/Significance] Against the backdrop of intensifying global technological competition, how to effectively identify and predict underdeveloped technical fields and untapped technical opportunities in technological development remains an urgent problem to be solved. [Method/Process] This paper proposed a national science and technology intelligence analysis framework based on technology control policies texts. By integrating prompt engineering for large language models (LLMs) and generative topographic mapping (GTM), it constructed GTM patent maps and multi-dimensional GTM maps to mine underdeveloped technology nodes and technological gaps. Then, it designed a multi-dimensional evaluation index system and conducted a comprehensive assessment to identify the technological opportunity points with CRITIC method. Ultimately, inverse mapping technology was utilized for technological interpretation. [Result/Conclusion] Taking the lithography technology clauses in the Commercial Control List as an empirical case, the framework identifies 6 underdeveloped key technology nodes and 3 potential technological innovation opportunities in China, and verifies its scientificity and effectiveness. This framework is intended to provide scientific basis for the formulation of science and technology policies, and technology strategy layout of relevant departments.

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