[目的/意义]很多学科服务机构已经把学科数据的定期分析和提供学科报告作为学科服务的重要手段，但这种学科数据分析报告服务仅具有周期性，并不能及时跟踪动态变化的学科数据。本研究的目的是以h指数分析为例，对学者影响力进行动态追踪和监测，探索一种基于动态数据整合的面向预测的新型学科服务模式。[方法/过程]通过对国内和国外两个研究团队h指数发展、逐年变化趋势进行文献计量分析，获取团队成员自有成果发表年以来逐年的论文数量及其引用数据，并计算累积被引次数，逐年提取h指数。[结果/结论]团队成员中h指数增长趋势轨迹各不相同，需结合各成员任职年限、h指数增长率等数据对其在团队中的作用进行判断，论文最后对不同的h指数变化趋势在科研管理中的作用进行总结和概括。
[Purpose/significance] The purpose of this study is to use the h-index analysis as an example to dynamically track and monitor the influence of scholars, and explore a new prediction-oriented service model based on dynamic data integration. [Method/process] By analyzing the dynamic characteristics of the data and the combination characteristics of the model, the dynamic citation data of two groups of research teams at home and abroad were integrated to analyze the development and trend of h-index of the research team and staff. [Result/conclusion] The h-index growth pattern of every member in the team varies, and there is a need to combine member tenure, h-index growth rate and other data to fix their roles in the team. Furthermore, the effects of different h-index changes in the scientific research management are summarized.
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