[目的/意义] 对美国国家情报评估影响因素与工作模式进行深入研究，有助于国家情报引领并服务于国家安全，促进国家安全治理体系的现代化建设。[方法/过程] 基于政策过程理论及相关研究，本研究从“评估原则”“评估问题”“评估思路”与“评估报告”四个维度构建国家情报评估理论框架，并引入20个美国国家情报评估工作的案例，借助清晰集定性比较分析法（csQCA），探讨美国国家情报评估的影响因素与工作模式。[结果/结论] 研究表明美国国家情报评估工作是多种因素组合作用的结果，并在此基础上概化出非组织模式、情报政治化模式和机构协同三种国家情报评估工作模式。
[Purpose/significance] An in-depth study of the influencing factors and generalization mode of national intelligence estimates in the United States will help to make national intelligence lead and serve national security, and promote the modernization of national security governance system. [Method/process] Based on the theory of policy process and related research, this study constructed a theoretical framework from four dimensions of "estimate principle", "estimate problem", "estimate idea" and "estimate report", and introduced 20 cases of national intelligence estimates in the United States, with the help of qualitative comparative analysis, to discuss the influencing factors and generalization model. [Result/conclusion] The research shows that the American national intelligence estimates are the result of a combination of multiple factors. On this basis, three modes of national intelligence estimates are generalized:non organizational mode, politicized mode and collaborative mode.
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