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Time Prediction of Academic Institutions Entering the World Top 1% Disciplines Ranked by ESI Based on the Curve Fitting Model——Taking Tsinghua University as an Example
Received date: 2016-10-10
Revised date: 2016-11-08
Online published: 2016-11-20
[Purpose/significance] ESI discipline ranking is one of the essential indicators of discipline evaluation both in China and abroad. Illustrated by the case of Tsinghua University, the paper introduces a practical method of data mining and analysis to predict the time of academic institutions entering the world's top 1% disciplines ranked by ESI. [Method/process] First, we found the potential disciplines which were possibly entering top 1%, and the "qualified gap" was simulated by comparing the total citation with the bottom institutions in the top ESI 1% disciplines. Then, the qualified time was predicted with the curve fitting model. In addition, the goodness-of-fit comparison of three different curve equations and the possible causes of prediction errors were presented in this study. [Result/conclusion] This proposed time is later proved to be basically accurate. This prediction method has important practical value in investigating the development tendency of key disciplines and measuring the gap with the world class disciplines.
Guan Cuizhong , Fan Aihong , He Weiping , Zhao Jie , Meng Ying . Time Prediction of Academic Institutions Entering the World Top 1% Disciplines Ranked by ESI Based on the Curve Fitting Model——Taking Tsinghua University as an Example[J]. Library and Information Service, 2016 , 60(22) : 88 -93 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2016.22.013
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