[Purpose/significance] In view of the shortcomings of the data read by the China Press and Publication Research Institute, the data are analyzed to get the results, which provides the basis and important reference for the cultural supply side reform and planning and designing among the culture, education, news, publishing and other departments.[Method/process] In this paper, the gray forecasting model is used to predict and analyze the relevant data of the national reading survey from 2008 to 2014. After the accuracy of the forecasting, the model is improved by using the "metabolic gray system" model to predict the relevant data from 2016 to 2023.[Result/conclusion] Comparing the forecast value with the actual survey value in 2015, it proves that the prediction accuracy is excellent, indicating that the relevant data predicted by the series models are reliable, practical and innovative, and it can provide the basis and reference for the relevant departments.
Tan Bo
,
Lei Runling
,
Li Hang
. An Analysis and Trend Forecast of National Reading in China[J]. Library and Information Service, 2017
, 61(6)
: 87
-91
.
DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2017.06.014
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