[Purpose/significance] In order to help the service development and collection acquisition of academic libraries, this paper measures the digital trend of academic collection in academic libraries. It estimates the extinction time of paper collection of academic libraries.[Method/process] This paper verified the digital state of references in articles which were published by literature teachers during 2009, 2011, 2013-2016. Then, it concluded the digital trend of books and periodicals with line graphs and estimated the extinction time of paper collection with logarithmic function.[Result/conclusion]First, Chinese books will be 100% digitized between 2033 and 2041. The Chinese periodicals have been close to 100% digitization now. We can conclude that domestic academic libraries do not need paper collection in 2041. The network sharing platform turns to a new channel of knowledge acquisition. The copyright, the network sharing platform and the demand changes of researchers affect the digital trend of literature.
Zhou Jian
,
Wang Yan
. The Extinction of Chinese Academic Paper Collection:A Case Study in the Field of Literature[J]. Library and Information Service, 2017
, 61(9)
: 59
-64
.
DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2017.09.007
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