Research on Identification Methods of Emerging Technologies

  • Wang Le ,
  • Wu Xinnian
Expand
  • 1. Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000;
    2. Lanzhou Library of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000;
    3. Department of Library, Information and Archives Management, School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

Received date: 2019-07-18

  Revised date: 2019-09-11

  Online published: 2020-02-20

Abstract

[Purpose/significance] The paper systematically analyzes the identification methods of emerging technologies at home and abroad, then summarizes research status and analyzes existing problems to provide reference for future research on identification methods of emerging technologies.[Method/process] On the basis of literature research and bibliometric analysis, this paper summarized the current mainstream identification methods of emerging technologies and analyzed its characteristics and its impact on the research of identification methods of emerging technologies combined with typical cases, then proposed suggestions for future research on identification methods of emerging technologies.[Result/conclusion] The current identification methods of emerging technologies conclude quantitative methods and qualitative methods. The common identification methods of emerging technologies are mainly based on measurement models, bibliometrics and text mining methods, and they are increasingly inclined to be multi-method fusion. However, there are still some deficiencies in the research. Future research on identification methods of emerging technologies should strengthen the exploration of the essential characteristics of emerging technologies, and strengthen the interpretation of specific identification methods to emerging technologies, and promote the timeliness of identification of emerging technologies from data sources and identification methods as well as Strengthen the exploration of effective fusion methods and application methods of multi-source data in the identification of emerging technologies.

Cite this article

Wang Le , Wu Xinnian . Research on Identification Methods of Emerging Technologies[J]. Library and Information Service, 2020 , 64(4) : 125 -135 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2020.04.014

References

[1] 戴,休梅克.沃顿论新兴技术管理[M].石莹,译.北京:华夏出版社,2002.
[2] ROTOLO D, HICKS D, MARTIN B R. What is an emerging technology?[J].Research policy, 2015,44(10):1827-1843.
[3] PORTER A L, ASHTON W B, CLAR G, et al. Technology futures analysis:toward integration of the field and new methods[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2004, 71(3):287-303.
[4] 黄鲁成,卢文光.基于属性综合评价系统的新兴技术识别研究[J].科研管理,2009, 30(4):190-194.
[5] 任智军,乔晓东,张江涛.新兴技术发现模型研究[J].现代图书情报技术,2016,32(7):60-69.
[6] KYEBAMBE M N, CHENG G, HUANG Y, et al. Forecasting emerging technologies:a supervised learning approach through patent analysis[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2017,125:236-244.
[7] SONG K, KIM K, LEE S. Identifying promising technologies using patents:a retrospective feature analysis and a prospective needs analysis on outlier patents[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2018,128:118-132.
[8] WANG Q. A bibliometric model for identifying emerging research topics[J].Journal of the association for information science and technology,2018,69(2):290-304.
[9] MUND C, NEUHAUSLER P. Towards an early-stage identification of emerging topics in science-The usability of bibliometric characteristics[J].Journal of informetrics,2015, 9(4):1018-1033.
[10] SCHIEBEL E, HOERLESBERGER M, ROCHE I, et al. An advanced diffusion model to identify emergent research issues:the case of optoelectronic devices[J].Scientometrics,2010, 83(3):765-781.
[11] FUJITA K, KAJIKAWA Y,MORI J, et al. Detecting research fronts using different types of weighted citation networks[J].Journal of engineering and technology management, 2014,32(SI):129-146.
[12] SMALL H, BOYACK K W, KLAVANS R. Identifying emerging topics in science and technology[J].Research policy,2014,43(8):1450-1467.
[13] BREITZMAR A, THOMAS P. The emerging clusters model:a tool for identifying emerging technologies across multiple patent systems[J].Research policy,2015,44(1):195-205.
[14] FURUKAWA T, MORI K, ARINO K, et al. Identifying the evolutionary process of emerging technologies:a chronological network analysis of World Wide Web conference sessions[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2015,91:280-294.
[15] 王燕鹏,韩涛,赵亚娟,等.人工智能领域关键技术挖掘分析[J/OL].世界科技研究与发展,2019:1-12[2019-09-05].https://doi.org/10.16507/j.issn.1006-6055.2019.08.001.
[16] KLEINBERG J. Bursty and hierarchical structure in streams[J].Data mining and knowledge discovery,2003,7(4):373-397.
[17] CHEN C M. CiteSpace II:Detecting and visualizing emerging trends and transient patterns in scientific literature[J].Journal of the American society for information science and technology,2006,57(3):359-377.
[18] GUO H, WEINGART S, BOERNER K.Mixed-indicators model for identifying emerging research areas[J].Scientometrics,2011,89(1):421-435.
[19] PILKINGTON A. Technology portfolio alignment commercialisation:an investigation of fuel cell patenting[J].Technovation,2004,24(10):761-771.
[20] LEE C, KWON O, KIM M, et al. Early identification of emerging technologies:A machine learning approach using multiple patent indicators[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2018,127:291-303.
[21] 刘同,真溱,汤珊红.利用专利分类,识别和分析新兴技术[J].情报理论与实践,2015,38(6):145.
[22] LEE P C, SU H N, Wu F S. Quantitative mapping of patented technology -The case of electrical conducting polymer nanocomposite[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2010,77(3):466-478.
[23] CHO T S, SHIH H Y. Patent citation network analysis of core and emerging technologies in Taiwan:1997-2008[J].Scientometrics,2011,89(3):795-811.
[24] 李瑞茜,陈向东.基于专利共类的关键技术识别及技术发展模式研究[J].情报学报,2018,37(5):49-56.
[25] 黄璐,朱一鹤,张嶷.基于加权网络链路预测的新兴技术主题识别研究[J].情报学报,2019,38(4):335-341.
[26] LEE S, YOON B, PARK Y. An approach to discovering new technology opportunities:Keyword-based patent map approach[J].Technovation,2009,29(6-7):481-497.
[27] DE RASSENFOSSE G, DERNIS H, GUELLEC D, et al. The worldwide count of priority patents:A new indicator of inventive activity[J].Research policy,2013,42(3):720-737.
[28] ERDI P, MAKOVI K, SOMOGYVARI Z, et al. Prediction of emerging technologies based on analysis of the US patent citation network[J].Scientometrics,2013,95(1):225-242.
[29] 李蓓,陈向东.基于专利引用耦合聚类的纳米领域新兴技术识别[J].情报杂志,2015,34(5):35-40.
[30] KIM G, BAE J. A novel approach to forecast promising technology through patent analysis[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2017,117:228-237.
[31] JARVENPAA H M, MAKINEN S J, SEPPANEN M. Patent and publishing activity sequence over a technology's life cycle[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2011,78(2):283-293.
[32] 王凌燕,方曙,季培培.利用专利文献识别新兴技术主题的技术框架研究[J].图书情报工作,2011,55(18):74-78+23.
[33] OGAWA T, KAJIKAWA Y. Assessing the industrial opportunity of academic research with patent relatedness:a case study on polymer electrolyte fuel cells[J].Technological forecasting and social Change,2015,90:469-475.
[34] 白如江,冷伏海,廖君华.科学研究前沿探测主要方法比较与发展趋势研究[J].情报理论与实践,2017,40(5):33-38.
[35] 王兴旺,董珏,余婷婷.基于三螺旋理论的新兴产业技术预测方法探索[J].科技管理研究,2019,39(6):108-113.
[36] 徐路路,王效岳,白如江.基于PLDA模型与多数据源融合相关性分析的新兴主题探测研究——以石墨烯领域为例[J].情报理论与实践,2018,41(4):63-69,43.
[37] PAPADIMITRIOU C H, RAGHAVAN P, TAMAKI H, et al. Latent semantic indexing:A probabilistic analysis[J].Journal of computer and system sciences,2000,61(2):217-235.
[38] 董放,刘宇飞,周源.基于LDA-SVM论文摘要多分类新兴技术预测[J].情报杂志, 2017,36(7):40-45,133.
[39] CHOI D,SONG B. Exploring technological trends in logistics:topic modeling-based patent analysis[J].Sustainability,2018,10(8):1-26.
[40] 周源,刘宇飞,薛澜.一种基于机器学习的新兴技术识别方法:以机器人技术为例[J].情报学报,2018,37(9):83-99.
[41] ZHOU Y, LIN H, LIU Y F, et al. A novel method to identify emerging technologies using a semi-supervised topic clustering model:a case of 3D printing industry[J]. Scientometrics,2019,120(1):167-185.
[42] 刘宇飞,尹力,张凯,等.基于深度迁移学习的技术术语识别——以数控系统领域为例[J/OL].情报杂志:1-8[2019-09-05].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/61.1167.G3.20190826.1717.022.html.
[43] YOON J, CHOI S, KIM K. Invention property-function network analysis of patents:a case of silicon-based thin film solar cells[J].Scientometrics,2011,86(3):687-703.
[44] 李欣,王静静,杨梓,等.基于SAO结构语义分析的新兴技术识别研究[J].情报杂志,2016, 35(3):80-84.
[45] YANG C, HUANG C, SU J. An improved SAO network-based method for technology trend analysis:A case study of graphene[J].Journal of informetrics,2018,12(1):271-286.
[46] 翟东升,夏军,张杰,等.基于专利新兴技术弱信号识别方法研究[J].情报杂志,2015,34(8):31-36.
[47] XU Y S, HUA X F. Mapping technological trajectories as patent citation networks:Taking the aero-engine industry as an example[C]//KOCAOGLU D F, ANDERSON T R, DAIM TU, et al.2014 Portland international conference on management of engineering & technology. New York:IEEE,2014:2827-2835.
Outlines

/