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2021 , Vol. 65 >Issue 17: 131 - 141

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2021.17.013

KNOWLEDGE ORGANIZATION

Prediction of Emerging Technologies from the Perspective of Outlier Patents——Based on Bert Model and Deep Neural Networks

  • Kong Dejing ,
  • Dong Fang ,
  • Chen Zijing ,
  • Liu Yuhan ,
  • Zhou Yuan
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  • 1. School of Modern Post, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876;
    2. School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084;
    3. School of Mechanical Science and Engneering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074

Received date: 2020-12-21

  Revised date: 2021-05-31

  Online published: 2021-09-01

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Abstract

[Purpose/significance] Due to the advanced nature of emerging technologies, they are often marginalized at the initial stage of formation. Most of present researches forecast emerging technologies by analyzing the mainstream technology development path, which would neglect some research that disrupts existing technology routes. By analyzing outlier patents that are less similar to the mainstream technologies in the field, it can identify and forecast the future emerging technologies more effectively.[Method/process] This paper presented an outlier patent identification and emerging technology prediction method based on deep learning. Firstly, the Bert pre-trained model was used to construct the similarity network based on texts of patents and outlier patents identification. The relationship model between outlier patent indicators and technical influence was then built based on DNN model, thus realizing the fast and accurate emerging technology prediction using large-scale outlier patents. Finally, an empirical analysis was conducted in the field of numerical control system with all patents applied in the last ten years obtained from DI database.[Result/conclusion] The result of empirical analysis in the field of numerical control system not only verifies the validity of the model, but also has important guiding significance to the formulation of national technology development policy and the technology layout of enterprises in related fields.

Key words： emerging technologies; deep learning; outlier patents; numerical control system

Cite this article

Kong Dejing , Dong Fang , Chen Zijing , Liu Yuhan , Zhou Yuan . Prediction of Emerging Technologies from the Perspective of Outlier Patents——Based on Bert Model and Deep Neural Networks[J]. Library and Information Service, 2021 , 65(17) : 131 -141 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2021.17.013

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