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2022 , Vol. 66 >Issue 2: 22 - 31

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2022.02.003

SPECIAL TOPIC: National Intelligence Assessment Research

The Relationship Between National Intelligence Estimates and Decision-Making: Based on Dual Perspectives of Multiple-Stream Theory and Cognitive Psychology

  • Wang Jin ,
  • Ma Haiqun ,
  • Zou Chunlong
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  • 1. School of Economics and Management, Harbin University of Science and Technology, Harbin 150080;
    2. Research Center of Information Resources Management, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080;
    3. Chinese Language and Literature of Postdoctoral Research Station, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080

Received date: 2021-05-14

  Revised date: 2021-08-28

  Online published: 2022-02-11

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Abstract

[Purpose/significance] The National Intelligence Estimates is regarded as the most formal and the highest level of strategic analysis product in the U.S. intelligence community. An in-depth study of the relationship between national intelligence estimates and decision-making can help to improve the scientific decision-making system in China and greatly benefit the modernization of the national governance system. [Method/process] Based on the multiple-stream theory and cognitive psychology, this paper constructed the influence mechanism model of national intelligence estimates and decision-making from the perspective of suggestion adoption, and analyzed the cases of Britain, the United States and other countries with the help of fsQCA method. [Result/conclusion] The study shows that interest proposition and coordination are the only necessary conditions for the adoption of national intelligence evaluation results, and reveals three conditions combination paths of the relationship between national intelligence estimates and decision-making under emergency and non-emergency events.

Key words： national intelligence estimates; decision-making analysis; multiple-stream theory; cognitive psychology; fsQCA

Cite this article

Wang Jin , Ma Haiqun , Zou Chunlong . The Relationship Between National Intelligence Estimates and Decision-Making: Based on Dual Perspectives of Multiple-Stream Theory and Cognitive Psychology[J]. Library and Information Service, 2022 , 66(2) : 22 -31 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2022.02.003

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