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2024 , Vol. 68 >Issue 10: 81 - 96

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2024.10.008

INFORMATION RESEARCH

A Study of Technology Opportunity Identification Based on Sudden Change of Weak Ties

  • Wu Keye ,
  • Sun Jianjun ,
  • Zhang Li ,
  • Zhao Yuan
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  • 1 Laboratory for Data Intelligence and Cross-Innovation of Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023;
    2 School of Information Management, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023

Received date: 2023-10-12

  Revised date: 2024-01-31

  Online published: 2024-06-04

Supported by

This work is supported by the major program of National Social Science Fund of China titled “Research on forecasting methods for identifying and converging innovation paths in frontier cross-cutting fields” (Grant No. 23&ZD225).

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Abstract

[Purpose/Significance] As the technology iteration cycle shortens, the identification of technological opportunities has important management and decision-making significance for corporate innovation and national development. [Method/Process] Inspired by the weak tie theory, this study constructed a technology opportunity identification framework based on the sudden change of weak tie, which recognized the state of technology links in technology networks that may change from weak to strong as technology opportunities. This framework was oriented to specific technical fields. It first built an IPC co-occurrence network and used link strength indicators to identify technical weak links. It further used an ensemble learning algorithm to predict effective weak ties with breakthrough potential among the weak links. Finally, the prediction results were reconstructed into a technology opportunity network, and the future technology opportunity development theme was obtained based on the community detection algorithm. [Result/Conclusion] An empirical study based on 4,104,839 patents in biomedicine from 1950 to 2020 shows that: ① Most technical weak links are eliminated in the process of technology evolution, and only a small number of technical weak links have the opportunity to break through and become technologies strong links. ②The link strength and node compatibility of weak links are key features for predicting the effectiveness of weak links, which shows that the “weaker” the technical weak link is, the higher the innovation efficiency will be. Instead, it needs to be fully demonstrated and linked to current technology hotspots to achieve the breakthrough. ③The integrated learning model can not only significantly improve the prediction accuracy of effective weak links in each technology stage, but also organically integrate the emergence rules of effective weak links in each technology development stage to provide reliable clues for predicting future technology opportunities. The four technology opportunity themes in the biomedical field finally identified are verified by multi-source technology development reports, which are all in line with the actual development of technology, proving the effectiveness of the framework of this paper.

Key words： technology opportunity identification; weak ties; link strength; ensemble learning; community detection

Cite this article

Wu Keye , Sun Jianjun , Zhang Li , Zhao Yuan . A Study of Technology Opportunity Identification Based on Sudden Change of Weak Ties[J]. Library and Information Service, 2024 , 68(10) : 81 -96 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2024.10.008

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