RESEARCH PAPERS

Research on Technology Evolutionary Paths and Their Inter-event Influence Driven by Causal Correlations

  • Wei Jingzhu ,
  • Zhu Peipei ,
  • Ma Zhiqing
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  • School of Information Management, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006
Wei Jingzhu,professor,PhD,doctoral supervisor,E-mail:weijzhu@mail.sysu.edu.cn;Zhu Peipei,doctoral candidate;Ma Zhiqing,master candidate.

Received date: 2024-06-25

  Revised date: 2024-09-29

  Online published: 2025-04-10

Supported by

This work is supported by the major project of the National Social Science Fund of China, titled “Research on Intellectual Property Intelligence Guarantee for Building International Science and Innovation Center in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area” (Grant No. 21&ZD339).

Abstract

[Purpose/Significance] Technology evolution path research has become an important reference for enterprise technology research and development decision-making. Currently, related studies focus on the relationships among common categories, co-occurrence, references, themes, and evolution but lack the in-depth exploration of causal links, especially the analysis of the mutual influence among technological events. The paper introduces the event graph and the event evolutionary graph driven by causal logic, aiming to explore the deepening causal process in the technology evolution path and analyze the complex correlation mechanism among technological events. [Method/Process] Based on ChatGLM, the paper designed prompt commands, extracted pairs of causal events from patents and scientific papers, constructed the causal event graph and the causal logic-based event evolutionary graph, and then formed coupled causal networks. The dynamic planning method and the weighted centrality algorithm were used to identify and quantify technological evolution paths and their events based on the event graph. Furthermore, the synergistic mechanism of the event graph and the event evolutionary graph were applied to the weighted influence analysis, and an innovative method for calculating the influence between pathway events was proposed. [Result/Conclusion] Causal association provides a way to reveal the influence and driving mechanisms in the process of technological evolution, which not only presents the multi-directionality and complexity of technological evolution paths but also lays the foundation for an in-depth interpretation of the interactions between path events.

Cite this article

Wei Jingzhu , Zhu Peipei , Ma Zhiqing . Research on Technology Evolutionary Paths and Their Inter-event Influence Driven by Causal Correlations[J]. Library and Information Service, 2025 , 69(8) : 57 -68 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2025.08.006

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