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2025 , Vol. 69 >Issue 23: 69 - 83

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2025.23.006

RESEARCH PAPERS

A Study on Prediction of Artificial Intelligence Innovation Trend in China and the United States: Based on Patent Application Data and Decomposition Integration Method

  • Mei Guoping ,
  • Ouyang Jiawen ,
  • Zhang Yang ,
  • Shi Yuanyuan
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  • Management Science and Engineering Research Center, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022
Mei Guoping, Professor, PhD, Doctoral Supervisor; Ouyang Jiawen, Doctoral Candidate, Corresponding Author, E-mail: 1121369179@qq.com; Zhang Yang, Associate Professor, PhD; Shi Yuanyuan, Doctoral Candidate.

Received date: 2025-03-28

  Revised date: 2025-06-19

  Online published: 2025-11-20

Supported by

This work is supported by the major program of National Social Science Fund of China, titled “Research on the Influence, Trend and Response Strategy of the New Generation of AI on the High-Quality Development of China’s Economy” (20&ZD068); and the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Education Graduate Student Innovation Fund Project of China, titled “Research on the Mechanism and Path of Artificial Intelligence Enabling the High-Quality Development of the Home Furnishing Industry” (YC2024-B090).

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Abstract

[Purpose/Significance] This paper constructs a “decomposition-integration” prediction framework to analyze the innovation trends and key characteristics of artificial intelligence in China and the United States, which is of great reference value for grasping the evolution of global AI technology. [Method/Process] Based on the data of AI invention patent applications, the system compared the combination of eight decomposition methods and eight prediction models to identify the significant advantages of VMD-LSTM model, and then applied this model to predict and compare the future of AI innovation in the two countries, and interpreted the characteristics of VMD decomposition results. [Result/Conclusion] The prediction results indicate that China’s future AI patent applications will show growth potential surpassing that of the United States. The decomposition results reveal that the long-term growth trends of both countries align with breakthroughs in deep learning. Since 2015, when the patent application volume in China significantly surpassed that of the United States, the fluctuation patterns of China’s innovation activities have shown significant co-movement with the phased evolution of national policies. In the face of the pandemic, China’s AI innovation has demonstrated stronger recovery momentum. Based on these findings, recommendations are made for China’s AI development, including strengthening forward-looking planning, optimizing policy combinations, and enhancing trend monitoring.

Key words： artificial intelligence; Sino-American comparison; trend prediction; decomposition integration; machine learning

Cite this article

Mei Guoping , Ouyang Jiawen , Zhang Yang , Shi Yuanyuan . A Study on Prediction of Artificial Intelligence Innovation Trend in China and the United States: Based on Patent Application Data and Decomposition Integration Method[J]. Library and Information Service, 2025 , 69(23) : 69 -83 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2025.23.006

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