[Purpose/Significance] Major local science and technology projects generally reflect the will and strategic needs of the government, aiming to solve the “bottleneck” problems in key technical fields. These projects are characterized by their importance, scale, and specialization. Traditional methods of expert evaluation and statistical analysis can no longer meet the new requirements of the current artificial intelligence and big data. The comprehensive application of various evaluation methods, such as intelligence analysis and peer review, to conduct performance evaluation can provide strong support for the planning management, and decision-making of local science and technology management departments. [Method/Process] This paper focuses on the major science and technology projects in Fujian Province to establish a performance evaluation index system based on six dimensions: project decision-making, implementation management, goal achievement, technical level, transformation effect, and sustainable impact. Next, it introduces a scientific and technological intelligence method to integrate intelligence analysis with scientific evaluations by supplementing the index system with technical intelligence-related indicators and adding intelligence analysis and evaluation to the evaluation process. Then, a comprehensive evaluation model based on the AHP and entropy weight cloud model is established. Finally, a case study of a specific project is used to verify the application value of the above method in the performance evaluation process of major local science and technology projects in Fujian Province. [Result/Conclusion] The research results demonstrate that the intelligence analysis and evaluation method reduces the influence of expert subjectivity, making the evaluation results more accurate and objective. The AHP-entropy weigh-cloud model accounts for the fuzziness and uncertainty of the evaluation information, which helps to accurately evaluate the performance levels, quickly determine the key influencing factors, and further enhance the authenticity and effectiveness of evaluation results. So, the method proposed in this paper is applicable to the post-performance evaluation of major local science and technology projects. It can provide theoretical support and practical guidance for scientific and technological information agencies or other evaluation institutions.
[1] 新华社. 习近平主持召开新时代推动东北全面振兴座谈会强调：牢牢把握东北的重要使命奋力谱写东北全面振兴新篇章[EB/OL]. [2026-06-30]. https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/ 202309/content_6903072.htm. (Xinhua News Agency. Xi Jinping Chairs Symposium on Advancing the Full Revitalization of Northeast China in the New Era, Stressing the Need to Firmly Grasp Northeast China’s Important Mission and Strive to Write a New Chapter in Its Full Revitalization[EB/OL]. [2026-06-30]. https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202309/content_6903072.htm.)
[2] 新华社. 中央经济工作会议在北京举行习近平发表重要讲话[EB/OL]. [2026-06-30]. https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202412/content_6992258.htm. (Xinhua News Agency. Central Economic Work Conference Held in Beijing; Xi Jinping Delivers Important Speech[EB/OL]. [2026-06-30]. https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202412/content_6992258.htm.)
[3] 陈健, 陈志. 加快推进重大专项成果转化为现实生产力[N/OL]. 科技日报, 2024-01-29(08)[2026-06-30]. https://epaper.stdaily.com/statics/technology-site/index.html#/home?isDetail=1¤tNewsId=2306d2d78e534151b53139efe1e68292¤tVersionName=%E7%AC%AC08%E7%89%88%EF%BC%9A%E7%90%86+%E8%AE%BA¤tVersion=08&timeValue=2024-01-29. (CHEN J, CHEN Z. Accelerate the transformation of major special achievements into real productive forces[N/OL]. Science and Technology Daily, 2024-01-29(08)[2026-06-30]. https://epaper.stdaily.com/statics/technology-site/index.html#/home?isDetail=1¤tNewsId=2306d2d78e534151b53139efe1e68292¤tVersionName=%E7%AC%AC08%E7%89%88%EF%BC%9A%E7%90%86+%E8%AE%BA¤tVersion=08&timeValue=2024-01-29.)
[4] 福建省科学技术厅. 【图解】2024年福建科技工作数据(科技创新治理体系)[EB/OL]. [2026-06-30]. https://kjt.fujian.gov.cn/xxgk/tjxx/tjsj/202503/t20250311_6777664.htm. (Fujian Provincial Department of Science and Technology. Graphic Illustration: Data on Fujian's Science and Technology Work in 2024(Science and Technology Innovation Governance System)[EB/OL]. [2026-06-30]. https://kjt.fujian.gov.cn/xxgk/tjxx/tjsj/202503/t20250311_6777664.htm.)
[5] 范英杰, 徐芳. 如何看待研究成果社会影响力评价?——英国高等教育机构科研水平评估框架概览[J]. 科学与社会, 2019, 9(1): 129-142. (FAN Y J, XU F. How to understand the evaluation of social impact of science? An overview of UK research evaluation framework of HEIs [J]. Science and society, 2019, 9(1): 129-142.)
[6] 美国政府问责局发布《NASA重大项目评估》报告[EB/OL]. [2024-08-23]. https://www.sohu.com/a/470468128_358040. (US Government Accountability Office releases NASA major project assessment report[EB/OL]. [2024-08-23]. https://www.sohu.com/a/470468128_358040.)
[7] 钟华, 单连慧, 安新颖. 日本医学科技项目评价体系分析及启示[J]. 世界科技研究与发展, 2021, 43(3): 375-383. (ZHONG H, DAN L H, AN X Y. Analysis and enlightenment of evaluation system for Japanese medical science and technology projects [J]. World Sci-Tech R & D, 2021, 43(3): 375-383.)
[8] Cho H, Ahn H, Park E. Data-driven analysis on the performance evaluation of national R&D projects in Korea[J]. Evaluation and Program Planning, 2024, 102(2): 102383.
[9] Kuchta D, Klaus-Rosińska A. Fuzzy Network data envelopment analysis in the evaluation of project success across the project life cycle[J]. Intelligent and fuzzy systems, 2022, 504(7): 319-327.
[10] Dagidir B, OEzkan B. A comprehensive evaluation of a company performance using sustainability balanced scorecard based on picture fuzzy AHP[J]. Journal of cleaner production, 2024, 435(1): 140519.1-13.
[11] 杨林超, 魏法杰, 周晟瀚. 军口国家科技重大专项综合绩效评价研究[J]. 项目管理技术, 2021, 19(9): 19-26. (YANG L C, WEI F J, ZHOU S H. Research on comprehensive performance evaluation of national science and technology major projects in the military and oral regions [J]. Project management technology, 2021, 19(9): 19-26.)
[12] 李彤, 祝丽云, 张晓忠, 等. 河北省奶业振兴重大技术创新绩效评价研究[J]. 中国农业会计, 2021, 31(11): 31-36. (LI T, ZHU L Y, ZHANG X Z, et al. Performance evaluation of major technological innovations in the revitalization of the dairy industry in Hebei province [J]. China agricultural accounting, 2021, 31(11): 31-36.)
[13] 任丽萍, 罗万有, 马晓英, 等. 宁夏重点研发计划绩效评价体系[J]. 中国科技信息, 2022, 34(14): 142-145. (REN L P, LUO W Y, MA X Y, et al. Performance evaluation system for key r&d programs in Ningxia [J]. China science and technology information, 2022, 34(14): 142-145.)
[14] 殷媛媛, 糜科, 肖其师. 重大科技项目立项决策的情报评价研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2018, 37(12): 72-77. (YIN Y Y, MI K, XIAO Q S. Research on information evaluation of major scientific and technological project approval[J]. Journal of intelligence, 2018, 37(12): 72-77.)
[15] 瞿丽曼. 基于情报分析法的科技成果评价研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2009, 28(8): 84-87. (QU L M. Research on the evaluation of scientific and technological achievements based on intelligence analysis[J]. Journal of intelligence, 2009, 28(8): 84-87)
[16] 张勇, 袁学敏, 盖芳, 等. 知识产权信息分析在科技成果评价中的应用[J]. 甘肃科技纵横, 2024, 53(3): 27-33. (ZHANG Y, YUAN X M, GAI F, et al. Application of intellectual property information analysis in the evaluation of scientific and technological achievements [J]. Scientific & technical information of Gansu, 2024, 53(3): 27-33.)
[17] 陈洪梅. 基于情报分析的科技评估工作机制研究[J]. 情报探索, 2019, 39(11): 33-37. (CHEN H M. Research on the mechanism of scientific and technological evaluation based on intelligence analysis [J]. Information research, 2019, 39(11): 33-37.)
[18] 莫冰, 杨纾彦, 李骞, 等. 技术就绪度评价方法在广东省重大科技专项绩效评估中的应用研究[J]. 科技管理研究, 2020, 40(1): 47-52. (MO B, YANG S Y, LI Q, et al. Application of technology readiness level in the performance evaluation of significant science and technology projects in Guangdong province[J]. Science and technology management research, 2020, 40(1): 47-52.)
[19] 李德毅, 孟海军. 隶属云和隶属云发生器[J]. 计算机研究与发展, 1995, 32(6): 15-20. (LI D Y, MENG H J. Subordinate cloud and subordinate cloud generator [J]. Computer research and development, 1995, 32(6): 15-20.)
[20] 廖康君. 基于组合赋权和云模型的H物流园EPC项目投标风险评价研究[D]. 赣州: 江西理工大学, 2022. (LIAO K J. Research on bidding risk assessment of h logistics park EPC Project based on combination weighting and cloud model [D]. Jiangxi: Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, 2022.)
[21] 王振宇, 周炳丞, 谢新连, 等. 基于云模型的船舶建造项目后评价[J]. 上海海事大学学报, 2023, 44(1): 95-103. (WANG Z Y, ZHOU B C, XIE X L, et al. Post-evaluation on shipbuilding projects based on cloud model[J]. Journal of Shanghai Maritime University, 2023, 44(1): 95-103.)
[22] 禹熙, 李晓英, 吴少霖. 基于组合赋权-云模型的珠江三角洲水资源可持续性动态评价[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2023, 34(1): 75-83. (YU X, LI X Y, WU S L. Dynamic evaluation of water resources sustainability in the Pearl River Delta based on the combined weight-cloud model[J]. Journal of water resources and water engineering, 2023, 34(1): 75-83.)
[23] 彭海媛. 地方科技重大专项整体资助绩效评价研究——基于循证视角[J]. 科技管理研究, 2022, 42(21): 48-55. (PENG H Y. Research on the funding performance evaluation of local science and technology major projects: based on the evidence-based perspective[J]. Science and technology management research, 2022, 42(21): 48-55.)
[24] 计宏亮. 基于大数据技术提升科技情报分析能力的路径研究[J]. 中国电子科学研究院学报, 2021, 16(11): 1126-1131. (JI H L. Research on the path to improve scientific and technological information analysis based on data technology[J]. Journal of China Academy of Electronics and Information Technology, 2021, 16(11): 1126-1131.)
[25] 财政部. 关于印发《项目支出绩效评价管理办法》的通知(财预〔2020〕10号)[EB/OL]. [2025-09-01]. https://www.mof.gov.cn/gkml/caizhengwengao/202001wg/202002wg/202005/t20200522_3518789.htm. (Ministry of Finance?. Notice on issuing the management measures for project expenditure performance evaluation[EB/OL]. [2025-09-01]. https://www.mof.gov.cn/gkml/caizhengwengao/202001wg/202002wg/202005/t20200522_3518789.htm.)
[26] 吕鲲, 项旻昊, 邱佳烨. 颠覆性技术的价值评价体系构建及实证研究——基于AHP和熵权法[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2023, 39(2): 30-38. (LV K, XIANG M H, QIU J Y. Value evaluation system construction and empirical study of disruptive technology: based on AHP and information entropy[J]. Forum on science and technology in China, 2023, 39(2): 30-38.)
[27] SPSSAU. SPSSAU帮助手册[EB/OL]. [2025-08-16]. https://spssau.com/help.html. (SPSSAU. SPSSAU Help Manual [EB/OL]. [2025-08-16]. https://spssau.com/help.html.)
[28] 李振强, 曹琦, 孟庆军. 基于指数标度AHP-黄金分割率法云模型的军事设施建设项目风险评价[J]. 军事运筹与评估, 2023, 38(2): 23-29. (LI Z Q, CAO Q, MENG Q J. Risk assessment of military facility construction projects based on index scale-AHP-golden ratio method cloud model[J]. Military operations research and assessment, 2023, 38(2): 23-29.)
[29] 福建省人民政府.福建省人民政府关于印发福建省“十二五”科技发展专项规划的通知[EB/OL]. [2026-06-30]. https://zfgb.fujian.gov.cn/4231. (Fujian Provincial People’s Government. Circular of the Fujian Provincial People’s Government on Issuing the Special Plan for Science and Technology Development of Fujian Province during the 12th Five-Year Plan Period[EB/OL]. [2026-06-30]. https://zfgb.fujian.gov.cn/4231.)
