RESEARCH PAPERS

Research on Potential Emerging Technology Identification Based on Dual Fuzzy Decomposition of “Technical Semantics—Application Scenarios”

  • Zhang Xinyu ,
  • Bai Rujiang ,
  • Niu Xianghe ,
  • Shi Wenxiu ,
  • Liu Qi ,
  • Kong Ling
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  • School of Information Management, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255049
Zhang Xinyu, Master’s Candidate; Bai Rujiang, Professor, PhD, Doctoral Supervisor, E-mail: brj@sdut.edu.cn; Niu Xianghe, Master’s Candidate; Shi Wenxiu, Master’s Candidate; Liu Qi, Master’s Candidate; Kong Ling, Lecturer, PhD.

Received date: 2025-07-30

  Revised date: 2025-10-10

  Online published: 2026-09-24

Supported by

This work is supported by the Shandong Social Science Planning Research Youth Project titled “Research on Knowledge Representation and Opportunity Identification of Green and Low-Carbon Technology from the Perspective of Knowledge Association”(Grant No.24DTQJ02).

Abstract

[Purpose/Significance] Potential emerging technologies are prone to recognition difficulties due to their inherent fuzzy characteristics. This article aims to construct a recognition system that is adapted to their fuzzy characteristics, achieve effective recognition of potential emerging technologies, and provide support for the allocation of technological innovation resources and future industrial development. [Method/Process] Based on the fuzziness characteristics of potential emerging technologies and their manifestations, using patents, news, and reports as data sources, a recognition model is constructed from two feature dimensions: technical semantic fuzziness and application scenario fuzziness. Firstly, based on dynamic networks and fuzzy C-means clustering methods, cross-domain association strength and attribution uncertainty indicators are constructed to identify semantic fuzziness technology. Secondly, with the help of the BERTopic topic model, a fuzzy technology for identifying application scenarios based on technology application diversity and scenario transition indicators is constructed. Finally, assign weights are assigned to the comprehensive technical semantic ambiguity index and the comprehensive application scenario ambiguity index to identify potential emerging technologies. [Result/Conclusion] With the field of hydrogen fuel cells as the empirical object, based on the Pareto Principle, the top 20% percentile of the comprehensive score (i.e., comprehensive potential score ≥ 0.32) is set as the recognition threshold, and finally 5 potential emerging technologies are identified.

Cite this article

Zhang Xinyu , Bai Rujiang , Niu Xianghe , Shi Wenxiu , Liu Qi , Kong Ling . Research on Potential Emerging Technology Identification Based on Dual Fuzzy Decomposition of “Technical Semantics—Application Scenarios”[J]. Library and Information Service, 2026 , 70(19) : 56 -71 . DOI: 10.13266/j.issn.0252-3116.2026.19.005

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